Research

  • The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment is described in the literature by the representativeness heuristic; its stability is emphasized. Two determinants are deduced from a general problem-solving model (existence and availability of the conjunction rule), which should reduce the inadequate use of the heuristic. Additionally, a distinction is made between errors in probability judgment which can be explained by the heuristic and those which can not. 32 subjects (16 female, 16 male), between 22 and 28 years old, participated under four experimental conditions (with eight subjects each). They solved two problems (one with high and one with low representativeness) concerning the conjunction rule. The experimental variables (existence and availability) substantially reduce - as postulated - the erroneous decisions. Only 55% of the remaining errors can be described by the representativeness heuristic. (orig.)

  • The study provides: (1) a rationale for using microcomputer spreadsheet programs as teaching tools in applied statistics courses; (2) examples of one spreadsheet template--Analysis of Variance; (3) corresponding workbook exercises for the ANOVA template; and (4) results and discussion of how the exercises are used in an introductory statistics class. Twelve templates covered topics ranging from descriptive statistics to multiple regression, and a workbook provided problem sets for the microcomputer spreadsheet program. During the summer of 1987, two graduate-level introductory research methods and statistics classes pilot-tested and evaluated the templates and workbook. The templates and workbook were revised during fall 1987 based on student and instructor evaluations. The templates will be retested and reevaluated at the end of the spring 1988 semester. (Author)

  • One of the most common misconceptions about probability is the belief that successive outcomes of a random process are not independent. This belief has been dubbed the "gambler's fallacy". The belief that non-normative expectations such as the gambler's fallacy are widely held has inspired probability and statistics instruction that attempts to counter such beliefs. This study presents an investigation of student performance pre and post instruction on problems dealing with these kinds of statistical misconceptions. Instruction consisted of 10 laboratory sessions, 1.5 hours each, delivered to 16 high school students attending a summer mathematics program at Mount Holyoke College (Massachusetts). The instruction included computer simulations that were intended to provide students with sufficient data to refute expectations based on the representativeness heuristic, as well as other misconceptions about chance. Student performance suggests that a belief in representativeness may not be as widespread as thought, and that curriculum development aimed at countering this belief should proceed cautiously. In addition, student who apparently do not have a well-developed understanding of independence in random sampling may nevertheless answer such problems correctly based on reasoning that is fundamentally non-probabilistic. Thus, many items currently being used to assess conceptual development may be insensitive to certain misconceptions about probability. Student misconceptions about probability need to be better understood if more appropirate mathematics instruction is to be achieved. (KR)

  • Describes a study that was designed to examine whether the computer attitudes of graduate students in a beginning statistics course differed based on their prior computer experience and the type of statistical analysis package used. Versions of statistical analysis packages using a mainframe and a microcomputer are compared. (14 references) (LRW)

  • Assessed skills in and attitudes toward statistics in 55 college students who used a computer for conducting analyses (Group 1), 41 students who did not use a computer (Group 2), and 24 students who had not taken statistics (Group 3). Inferior selection and interpretation (INT) skills were found in Group 3. Group 1 had significantly more favorable attitudes toward statistics than did Groups 2 and 3. Men had higher INT scores that women, and Ss with a higher grade point average (GPA) had higher INT scores than did those with a lower GPA. (PsycLIT Database Copyright 1990 American Psychological Assn, all rights reserved)

  • Previous research has shown that a significant correlation exists between mathematical competency and computer science aptitude and achievement. These results were reported by Wileman, Stephens and Konvalina (1982). In Addi Tion, Stephens (1982) reported a significant correlation between mathematical competency and achievement in statistical methodology. This paper reports on research carried out to determine if this relationship is transitive. That is, since achievement in statistical methods is significantly correlated to mathematical competency, and mathematical competency is significantly correlated to computer science aptitude, is it true that achievement in statistical methodology is significantly correlated with computer science aptitude. (orig.)

  • The purpose of this study was to investigate some variables that relate to students' anxiety in learning statistics. The variables included sex, class level, students' achievement, school, mathematical background, previous statistics courses, and race. The instrument used was the 24-item Students' Attitudes Toward Statistics (STATS), which was administered to the statistics classes at the College of Education and at the College of Commerce and Business Administration at the University of Alabama (Tuscaloosa). The STATS required students to describe themselves based on a 0 to 9 scale, with 0 being "does not describe me" and 9 being "describes me." The sample included 79 male and 97 female students in undergraduate and graduate statistics classes. The data were analyzed in contingency tables using chi square statistics to compute significance of relationships. All data analyses were performed on an IBM miniframe computer. The association analysis showed that there was a significant relationship between students' anxiety in learning statistics and the variables of students' achievement, statistical preknowledge, school, and current class level. However, the results do not provide enough evidence to suggest that there was a relationship between students' anxiety in learning statistics and the other variables (such as college mathematics background, gender, and ethnicity). (RLC)

  • Survey data were collected from 139 undergraduate and graduate faculty regarding their commercial software preferences for advanced analysis of variance (ANOVA) courses. Despite the availability of many new statistical software packages, the top 3 packages in popularity for ANOVA applications were SPSS, SSA, and BMDP, all of which appeared originally as mainframe software. The 4th package in terms of popularity was SYSTAT, originally developed for IBM-compatible microcomputers. Although ease of use was the most important criterion for choosing a software package, the most frequently cited reason for not using 1 of the 4 most popular programs was difficulty for students. (PsycLIT Database Copyright 1991 American Psychological Assn, all rights reserved)

  • Evaluates the effectiveness of 2 different computer assisted instruction (CAI) formats compared with traditional in-class instruction as a laboratory supplement to lectures in introductory statistics. 134 students enrolled in an introductory statistics course in psychology were assigned to 1 of the 3 lab sessions. The evaluation consisted of affective responses to a questionnaire concerning the lab session, as well as student performance on 3 homework assignments and on a midterm examination. Lab format had a significant effect on attitude toward the lab; it did not, however, significantly influence performance. Path analysis revealed relations between lab format, student attitude toward the lab, and performance on the midterm exam. (PsycLIT Database Copyright 1990 American Psychological Assn, all rights reserved)

  • Examines the strengths and weaknesses of five selected statistical software packages with respect to how well the software enhances business statistics instructors's ability to teach traditionally difficult topics. Ranks the software on technical and pedagogical benefits. Results indicate (1) no advantage to using textbook-related software over generic software; and (2) teaching enhancement by appropriate software use. (MDH)

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