Probability

  • Ignorance gives one a large range of probabilities.

    Mary Anne Evans  (1819 – 1880)

  • Did you know that people who meet at least three different times within a twenty-four hour period are ninety-eight percent more likely to meet again?

    Jennifer E. Smith (1980 - )

  • Indeed, whatever we propose relates to a certain state of our knowledge, factual knowledge as well as epistemology.

    Hilda Geiringer (1893 – 1973)

  • by Lawrence Mark Lesser

    We don’t readily see
    ourselves
    as replaceable, exchangeable objects,
    arbitrary members of a population.

    We’re thinking: without loss
    of generality, let the person be
    me who today matches a birthday,
    wins the lottery or falls in love.

  • Lyrics and music ©1997, 2007 Lawrence M. Lesser​

    Sportscaster bragged all night
    'Bout the one prediction he got right:
    He said, "The more they've scored, the more they've won."
    Probability of A given A is 1.
    Probability of A given A is 1.

    Writer made his Bible a find-a-word:
    "TWIN", "TOWERS" and "PLANE" converged
    When he let computers run.
    Probability of A given A is 1.

    You'll find reason, you'll find fate explaining why your side won
    Like nothin' to do if nothin's new under the sun.

    "Fear breeds fear, war breeds war,"
    Said the call-in poll on Channel 4:
    Father's legacy to son.
    Probability of A given A is 1.
    Probability of A given A,   
    Possibility of A given A,
    All the same to me: always points to one.

  • by Jasper D. Memory (1935 - )

    A hypochondriac at heart, he thought
    (Though symptom free) he had a dire disease,
    And after fruitless weeks of worry, sought
    Some test to take to set his mind at ease.

    He forthwith found one that would do the trick,
    And accurate (at oh point nine) to tell
    Those having the disease that they were sick,
    And just the same, the well that they were well.

    One crucial point he failed to note was this:
    That of a hundred like him, only one
    Had the disease, and this slip made him miss
    The implication when the test was done

    And positive! therefore, consumed with dread,
    And now convinced his blackest fears were right
    (By faulty logic fatally misled),
    He shattered silence that calm summer night.

  • by Eveline Pye

    Like a tracker, I smell the earth
    on my fingers, listen for the slightest
    echo as I stare out at a world
    where bell-shaped curves loom

    as mountains and negative exponentials
    foretell dangerous descents, imminent
    disaster. All around, cliff edges crash
    down to restless seas while a solitary

    outlier shines in the southern sky: a freak
    of random sampling or a guiding light?
    Are others buried deep, confounded
    by experimental design?  On my path,

    a decision tree, so many branches
    spring from its trunk, so many choices.

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