Probability classrooms often fail to develop sustainable conceptions of probability as strategic<br>tools that can be activated for decisions in everyday random situations. The article starts from the assumption<br>that one important reason might be the often empirically reconstructed divergence between individual<br>conceptions of probabilistic phenomena and the normative conceptions taught in probability classrooms,<br>especially concerning pattern in random. Since the process of dealing with these phenomena cannot<br>sufficiently be explained by existing frameworks alone, an alternative - horizontal - view on conceptual<br>change is proposed. Its use for research and development within the so-called Educational Reconstruction<br>Program is presented. The empirical part of the paper is based on a qualitative study with 10 game interviews.<br>Central results concern the oszillation between conceptions and cognitive layers and the situatedness of their<br>activation. In particular, diverging perspectives seem to root in contrasting foci of attention, namely the<br>mathematically suitable long-term perspective being in concurrence to the more natural short-term attention<br>to single outcomes. The Educational Reconstruction Program offers an interesting possibility to specify roots<br>of obstacles and to develop guidelines for designing learning environments which respect the horizontal view.