Probability

  • A short story that might be used in an out-of-class assignment to understand lifetime distributions. The story was written by Ben Marshall of FaithLife Financial in Waterloo Ontario, Canada. The story took first place in the 2007 Society of Actuaries 7th annual Speculative Fiction Contest.
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  • A short story that can be used in an out-of-class assignment in association with the study of probability rules, Bayes Theorem and expectations as they relate to games of chance. The story was written by Canadian Mathematician Robert Dawson from Saint Mary's University in Halifax, Nova Scotia and appeared in the Journal of Humanistic Mathematics (volume 7, issue 1, January 2017).
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  • A story that might be used as an out-of-class assignment associated with the study of population growth models (here the population is at equilibrium because both births and deaths are essentially non-existent). The story was written by Chris Fievoli from the Canadian Institute of Actuaries and won first place in the 8th Speculative Fiction Contest in 2009
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  • A short story that can be used as an out-of-class assignment associated with studying the probability of rare events and issues like those that arise in the birthday problem about how the chance that an event will happen to someone differs from the chance it will happen to you. The story was written in 1973 by Arkady and Boris Strugatsky and appeared in the short story compilation 'journey Across Three Worlds" (Mir Publishers, Moscow). The version here was translated from Russian to English by Gladys Evans.
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  • A poem to develop an understanding of permutations. A question like "Why is the word importunate used in a poem about a permutation?" will help the conversation. The poem was written by Larry Lesser from The University of Texas at El Paso in 2017.
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  • A quote to stimulate a discussion about Bayesian estimation and the relationship between the degree of ignorance about a parameter and its probability distribution. The quote is by English novelist Mary Anne Evans (1819-1880) who wrote under the pen name George Eliot. The quote is from her 1876 novel Daniel Deronda.
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  • A quote to help in discussing the ideas of sampling without replacement (and more specifically in 5-card poker games). The quote is by Canadian author Isabel Huggan (1943 - ) from her 1984 book The Elizabeth Stories.
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  • A quote that might be used in discussing the Law of Large Numbers. The quote is by English author and satirist Delarivier Manley (1663 – 1724) from her 1709 book "Secret Memoirs and Manners of Several Persons of Quality of Both Sexes."
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  • A quote that might be used in discussing how statistical models attempt to incorporate the main relevant explanatory factors and assume that small components are part of random error term. The quote is by American novelist Anne Tyler (1941 - ) and appeared in the New York Times in 2004
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  • A quote that could be used in discussing the idea that results of an individual experiment are random and highly variable compared with the stability of the "long run". The quote is by Native American author Mourning Dove (1884 – 1936), also known as Christal Quintasket, in her 1927 novel "Cogewea, the Half-Blood: A Depiction of the Great Montana Cattle Range"
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