# Probability

• ### Poem: Availability Heuristic

"Availability Heuristic" is a poem by Lawrence Mark Lesser from The University of Texas at El Paso. The poem was originally published in the January 2017 Journal of Humanistic Mathematics. Classroom discussion the poem may spark includes comparing and contrasting mathematical and statistical roles and language for generality, looking up and discussing the meaning of the title (a phenomenon identified by Kahneman and Tversky in 1973), exploring the"someone, somewhere" idea of Utts' Seeing Through Statistics, or discussing how many people have poor intuition with the birthday problem ("probability of at least one match in the room") because they confuse it with the birthdate ("probability at least one match with ME") problem (see letters in the summer 2014 Teaching Statistics).
• ### Elementary Statistics with R

This is an e-book tutorial for R. It is organized according to the topics usually taught in an Introductory Statistics course. Topics include: Qualitative Data; Quantitative Data; Numerical Measures; Probability Distributions; Interval Estimation; Hypothesis Testing; Type II Error; Inference about Two Populations; Goodness of Fit; Analysis of Variance; Non-parametric methods; Linear Regression; and Logistic Regression.
• ### Quote: Geiringer on Building Knowledge

A quote to motivate discussion of how knowledge builds from a base. The quote is by Austrian-American Mathematician Hilda Geiringer (1893-1973) who used it in connection to her philosophy of probability and how it should build from a firm mathematical base but be connected to real world problems. The quote is contained in her 1964 preface to Mathematical Theory of Probability and Statistics by Richard von Mises (von Mises was her husband and she wrote and compiled the book from his notes after his death).
• ### Quote: Smith on Conditional Probability

A quote from popular fiction that might be used in a discussion of conditional probability. The meaning of the phrase "ninety-eight percent more likely" is also good fodder for class discussion as students might confuse its interpretation between a 1% chance becoming 99% or becoming 1.98%. The quote is by American author Jennifer E. Smith (1980 - ) from her book "The Statistical Probability of Love at First Sight."

• ### Video: A Normal Distribution of Buns

A 2015 video by Amelia Baechtel, an AP Statistics student from Magrudger High School, that can be used in discussing the use of the normal distribution. The video received an honorable mention in the 2015 A-mu-sing contest.
• ### Joke: Coach's Preferred Distribution

A joke by Larry Lesser of University of Texas at El Paso that can be used in discussing the uniform probability distribution.
• ### Poem: Two Haikus on CLT

A poem consisting of two quasi Haikus that can used in discussing the Cramer-Rao lower bound on the variance of a normally distributed statistic. The poem was written by Ming-Lun Ho of Chabot College and was given a third place award in the 2015 A-mu-sing contest.
• ### Song: Probability Rules Rap

A rap about the basic rules of probability. The music and lyrics were written by Lawrence Mark Lesser of University of Texas at El Paso and won an honorable mention in the 2015 A-mu-sing contest. This song is part of an NSF-funded library of interactive songs that involved students creating responses to prompts that are then included in the lyrics (see www.causeweb.org/smiles for the interactive version of the song, a short reading covering the topic, and an assessment item).

• ### Quote: Collins on the odds

"May the odds be ever in your favor!" is a quote from The Hunger Games novels/movie trilogy by Suzanne Collins (1962 - ). It can be used in discussing the Law of Large Numbers and the position of the casino in betting games.
• ### Quote: Oliver on Chance

"Chance. Stupid, dumb, blind chance. Just a part of the strange mechanism of the world, with its fits and coughs and starts and random collisions." is a quote by American author Lauren Oliver (1982 - ). The quote appears in her 2010 novel Before I Fall.