# Elementary Probability

• ### Statistics and Probability Concepts

This is a collection of activities as Java applets that can be used to explore probability and statistics. Each activity is supplemented with background information, activity instructions, and a curriculum for the activity.
• ### Is He Guilty?

This PowerPoint presentation evaluates type I errors in civil trials compared to criminal trials as well as provides an example of a hypothesis test and its components. The original presenation is available for download.
• ### Hypothesis Testing

This PowerPoint lecture presentation discusses comparing the means of two dependent populations using the paired T-test and defines the concepts of this hypothesis test. The original presentation is available for downloading.

This lesson plan uses the Birthday Paradox to introduce basic concepts of probability. Students run a Monte Carlo simulation using the TI-83 graphing calculator to generate random dates, and then search for matching pairs. Students also perform a graphical analysis of the birthday-problem function. Key Words: Permutations; Explicit Function; Recursive Function; Modeling.
• ### data Collection: PollingReport.com

An independent, nonpartisan resource on trends in American public opinion. Gives examples of recent polls, margins of error, questions asked, and sample sizes.
• ### Box Model

This virtual applet simulates randomly drawing numbers from a box. You can choose which numbers you would like to choose from and the number of draws. The applet has the option to show theoretical probability and displays the results in histogram form.
• ### Racing Game with One Die

This applet allows the user to simulate a race where the results are based on the roll of a die. For each outcome of the die, the user chooses which player moves forward. Then that car moves forward the given number of spaces. Users can experiment with the race by determining which player will win more often based on the rules that they specify.

• ### A Tutorial on Mathematical Modeling

This general, introductory tutorial on mathematical modeling (in pdf format) is intended to provide an introduction to the correct analysis of data. It addresses, in an elementary way, those ideas that are important to the effort of distinguishing information from error. This distinction constitutes the central theme of the material described herein. Both deterministic modeling (univariate regression) as well as the (stochastic) modeling of random variables are considered, with emphasis on the latter. No attempt is made to cover every topic of relevance. Instead, attention is focussed on elucidating and illustrating core concepts as they apply to empirical data.

• ### Religious Fundamentalism and Optimism

This example is designed to test whether religiosity is correlated with optimism. The page describes the study, has a link to the data set, and describes the method of analysis. Analysis includes ANOVA and regression.
• ### Data Collection: The Pew Research Center For The People & The Press data archive

The Pew Research Center For The People & The Press data archive page contains links to downloadable versions of the Center's survey data which are currently available on the web. Survey data are released six months after the reports are issued and are posted on the web as quickly as possible.