Literature Index

Displaying 2741 - 2750 of 3326

  • The hot hand fallacy and the gambler's fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness?

    Author(s):
    Ayton, P. & Fischer, I.
    Year:
    2004
    Abstract:
    The representativeness heuristic has been invoked to explain two opposing expectations - that random sequences will exhibit positive recency (the hot hand fallacy) and that they will exhibit negative recency (the gambler's fallacy). We propose alternative accounts for these two expectations: (1) The hot hand fallacy arises from the experience of characteristic positive recency in serial fluctuations in human performance. (2) The gambler's fallacy results from the experience of characteristic negative recency in sequences of natural events, akin to sampling without replacement. Experiment 1 demonstrates negative recency in subjects' expectations for random binary outcomes from a roulette game, simultaneously with positive recency in expectations for another statistically identical sequence - the successes and failures of their predictions for the random outcomes. These findings fit our proposal but are problematic for the representativeness account. Experiment 2 demonstrates that sequence recency influences attributions that human performance or chance generated the sequence.

  • The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences

    Author(s):
    Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A.
    Year:
    1985
    Abstract:
    People's intuitive conceptions of randomness have been found to depart systematically from the laws of chance. This is illustrated in the game of basketball. Players and fans have been found to believe in "streak shooting," a phenomenon involving the belief that players have a better chance to get a basket after a few successful attempts despite the statistical odds against such an occurrence. This misconception seems to affect how the game is played as well since many coaches and players believe that it is important to pass the basketball to a player that has successfully attempted most shots. This finding is consistent with "gambler's fallacy." It is suggested that the belief in the law of small numbers could be due to performance heuristics since strings of successful shots are more memorable than mixed ones.

  • The Humble Pie - Half-Baked or Well Done?

    Author(s):
    Neville Hunt and Houshang Mashhoudy
    Year:
    2008
    Abstract:
    This article re-examines the much maligned piechart<br>and provides justification for its use. It identifies<br>common pitfalls when drawing piecharts in Microsoft<br>Excel and offers advice on how to avoid them.
    Location:
    http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1467-9639.2007.00306.x

  • The IASE - Background, Activities And Future

    Author(s):
    Phillips, B.
    Editors:
    Phillips, B.
    Year:
    2002
    Abstract:
    Since its formation in 1993, the International Association for Statistical Education, IASE, has become a very active international organisation which aims to advance statistical education at all levels, from primary school through training of professionals as well as to the general, public. From 1949 the Committee on Statistical Education within the International Statistical Institute, ISI, promoted the university training of Statisticians at an international level while in developing countries the ISI concerned itself with the education of official statisticians. From the mid 1970's the ISI began to pay more attention to the teaching of statistics at all levels. Since the IASE became a section of the ISI in 1993 it has been responsible for the organisation of all statistical education activities run by the ISI. These include a research group, a range of international meetings, regular publications and a comprehensive website.
    Location:
    http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~iase/publications/1/5d2_phil.pdf

  • The Illusion of Control

    Author(s):
    Langer, E. J.
    Year:
    1975
    Abstract:
    A series of studies was conducted to elucidate a phenomenon here referred to as the "illusion of control". An illusion of control was defined as expectancy of a personal success probability inappropriately higher than the objective probability would warrant. It was predicted that factors from skill situations (competition, choice, familiarity, involvement) introduced into chance situations cause individuals to feel inapproriately confident. In Study 1 subejcts cut cards against either a confident or a nervous competitor: in Study 2 lottery participants were or were not given a choice of ticket; in Study 3 lottery participants were or were not given a choice of either familiar or unfamiliar lottery tickets; in Study 4, in a novel chance game, subjects either had or did not have practice and responded either themselves or by proxy; in Study 5 lottery participants at a racetrack were asked their confidence at different times; finally, in Study 6 lottery participants either received a single three-digit ticket or one digit on each of 3 days. Indicators of confidence in all six studies supported the prediction.

  • THE IMPACT OF A PROFICIENCY-BASED ASSESSMENT AND REASSESSMENT OF LEARNING OUTCOMES SYSTEM ON STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT AND ATTITUDES

    Author(s):
    MICHAEL A. POSNER
    Year:
    2011
    Abstract:
    This research compares a student-centered, proficiency-based assessment and reassessment of learning outcomes (PARLO) system to traditional assessment in a college-level introductory statistics class. The PARLO class was assessed on learning outcomes using a three-tiered proficiency scale and given the opportunity to resubmit assignments to increase their rating. Students' attitudes towards statistics improved more in the PARLO group, but no differences between groups were found on the CAOS test or on a common final exam. Within the PARLO group, students with a higher resubmission rate scored better on the final exam and those who resubmitted and achieved proficiency performed similarly to those achieving proficiency with the first submission. Assessing proficiency on specific learning outcomes allowed both students and the instructor to better evaluate learning.
    Location:
    http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~iase/serj/SERJ10(1)_Posner.pdf

  • The impact of computers on school statistics teaching

    Author(s):
    Holmes, P.
    Editors:
    Davidson, R., &amp; Swift, J.
    Year:
    1986
    Abstract:
    I have picked out four areas in which computers are changing the teaching and learning of statistics and I have illustrated them with screen dumps from programs that are currently available in the UK. The four areas are: Content, Approach, Emphasis and Understanding.

  • The impact of probability judgments on reasoning about multiple possibilities

    Author(s):
    Horobin, K., &amp; Acredolo, C.
    Year:
    1989
    Abstract:
    These results support the hypothesis that one major cause of inappropriate closure among young children is the confusion of possibility with probability

  • The Impact of Student-Directed Projects in Introductory Statistics

    Author(s):
    Dianna Spence, Brad Bailey, and Julia Sharp
    Year:
    2017
    Abstract:
     A multi-year study investigated the impact of incorporating student-directed discovery projects into introductory statistics courses. Pilot instructors at institutions across the United States taught statistics implementing student-directed projects with the help of a common set of instructional materials designed to facilitate such projects. Researchers measured the impact of these projects on student learning and on students’ attitudes and beliefs about statistics. Results of the quantitative analyses are shared, with subsequent discussion of their implications. Findings suggest that inclusion of student-directed research projects in introductory statistics can lead to greater statistics self-efficacy and improved statistical knowledge in specific domains. Additional analyses suggest that these student benefits may improve as their instructors gain more experience facilitating such projects.  
    Location:
    http://iase-web.org/documents/SERJ/SERJ16(1)_Spence.pdf

  • The Importance of Attitudes in Statistics Education

    Author(s):
    Caroline Ramirez, Candace Schau, and Esma Emmioğlu
    Year:
    2012
    Abstract:
    People forget what they do not use. But attitudes “stick.” Our article emphasizes the importance of students’ attitudes toward statistics. We examine 15 surveys that purport to assess these attitudes and then describe the Survey of Attitudes Toward Statistics, a commonly used attitude survey. We present our conceptual model of Students’ Attitudes Toward Statistics (SATS-M), which is congruent with Eccles and colleagues’ Expectancy-Value Theory (Eccles’ EVT), as well as others. The SATS-M includes three broad constructs that impact Statistics Course Outcomes: Student Characteristics, Previous Achievement-Related Experiences, and Statistics Attitudes. We briefly describe Eccles’ EVT and other theories that support our SATS-M. We relate findings from research using the SATS to our model and end with implications for statistics education.
    Location:
    http://iase-web.org/documents/SERJ/SERJ11(2)_Ramirez.pdf

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The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education

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