This short article discusses how the comparative ratios of the tails of normal distributions can result in bias in hiring practices. It contains a link to an applet that shows the comparative tail probability ratios.
Students explore the definition and interpretations of the probability of an event by investigating the long run proportion of times a sum of 8 is obtained when two balanced dice are rolled repeatedly. Making use of hand calculations, computer simulations, and descriptive techniques, students encounter the laws of large numbers in a familiar setting. By working through the exercises, students will gain a deeper understanding of the qualitative and quantitative relationships between theoretical probability and long run relative frequency. Particularly, students investigate the proximity of the relative frequency of an event to its probability and conclude, from data, the order on which the dispersion of the relative frequency diminishes. Key words: probability, law of large numbers, simulation, estimation
Includes project file for Minitab and coding for a dice rolling simulation.
An applet explores the following problem: A long day hiking through the Grand Canyon has discombobulated this tourist. Unsure of which way he is randomly stumbling, 1/3 of his steps are towards the edge of the cliff, while 2/3 of his steps are towards safety. From where he stands, one step forward will send him tumbling down. What is the probability that he can escape unharmed?
The Caesar Shift is a translation of the alphabet; for example, a five-letter shift would code the letter a as f, b as g, ... z as e. We describe a five-step process for decoding an encrypted message. First, groups of size 4 construct a frequency table of the letters in two lines of a coded message. Second, students construct a bar chart for a reference message of the frequency of letters in the English language. Third, students create a bar chart of the coded message. Fourth, students visually compare the bar chart of the reference message (step 2) to the bar chart of the coded message (step 3). Based on this comparison, students hypothesize a shift. Fifth, students apply the shift to the coded message. After decoding the message, students are asked a series of questions that assess their ability to see patterns. The questions are geared for higher levels of cognitive reasoning. Key words: bar charts, Caesar Shift, encryption, testing hypotheses