W13: POGIL-style Activities Introducing Students to Bayes Theorem

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While technology advancements have allowed Bayesian statistics in undergraduate classrooms to become more accessible, to grasp Bayesian methodology significant base knowledge is still required of students. In summer 2023 we attended a one-week Bayes-BATS (BAyesian Thinking in STEM) workshop and during fall 2023 developed several POGIL-style Bayesian activities: “Developing Bayes Theorem” and “Applying Bayes Theorem.” POGIL refers to Process Oriented Guided Inquiry Learning and activities are designed to have student teams be self guided through the content with the instructor acting as facilitator. The first activity builds from a base knowledge of probability, to using conditional proportions, and finally to developing Bayes Theorem. The second activity was created to follow directly after the first and reviews Bayes Theorem before leading students to apply the formula. Both activities could fit within an introductory statistics course, an undergraduate probability course, or in a STEM course with a quantitative focus. The first activity was piloted in four classrooms during fall 2023: Discrete Systems (three public R1 CS honors students); Mathematics in Society (seven private R2 Gen Ed non-STEM students); Elementary Statistics (30 private liberal arts Gen Ed non-STEM students); Biostatistics course (25 private liberal arts Biology students). Additional pilot runs are planned for spring 2024. Feedback indicated that students better understood conditional probabilities and were able to see the motivation for the Bayesian approach, but we need to work on the length of the activities and question wording. We believe these activities offer instructors one option for introducing Bayesian statistics into undergraduate classrooms.