What explains why some Senators ignore testimony when they vote on Federal Court nominations?
Answer: Confirmation bias.
Larry Lesser and Dennis Pearl
lyric © 2017 Lawrence M. Lesser
sing to the tune of the KC & the Sunshine Band hit “(Shake, Shake, Shake) Shake Your Booty”
Two…. million readers
picked Landon to
advance;
Gallup
disagreed
from thousands picked by chance.
CHORUS:
(Shake, shake, shake,
shake, shake, shake:
random sample,
random sample)2x
Ahhh, you think
you can pick them
very well,
But drafting
for Vietnam
wasn’t swell.
(Repeat Chorus)
Shake, shake, shake
shake, shake, shake:
iPod Shuffle,
quick pick lotto.
Shake, shake, shake,
take, take, take:
random sample!
Lyrics © 2016 Amy Adler
May be sung to the tune of "Miss Susie Had a Steamboat"
Oh, once there was a teacher who wondered 'bout his class.
(Do they) smile at him to please him? Or like to learn 'bout stats?
So he set out to determine but didn't want to ask
Every single student -- that was too much of a task.
Instead he aimed to sample and interview some instead.
But how to do that properly? He thought out in his head.
He had to choose some students to represent the whole:
What things should he consider? What does he need to know?
How should he word the questions? And are there other facts,
That might affect the outcome? He needs to know all that.
Once he knows the questions and other relevant facts,
He can take a sample that represents the class.
But picking only certain ones, the result may go astray
Picking those who get straight A's may be a biased way.
Those who get straight A's might be more
Prone to answer in the same way and skew the results for sure.
To truly have the answer with high confidence,
A random sample when you can is generally the best.
So once he picked the sample -- he'd ask them one by one,
And then he'd calculate how many said "It's fun!"
He didn't want to call them or ask them face to face,
So he emailed and repeated 'till every poll took place.
He looked at the percentage who said that stats are great,
And felt the un-polled students should agree at that same rate.
So if he took a sample that represents the whole:
He can estimate how many are stats fans on his roll.
Lyrics © Mary McLellan
may sing to the tune of Meghan Trainor's "All About That Bass"
You know you randomly select, select, no effect
You know you randomly select, select, no effect
You know you randomly select, select, no effect
When your sample’s like the population you can generalize
You know you randomly select, select, no effect
You know you randomly select, select, no effect
You know you randomly select, select, no effect
When your sample’s like the population you can generalize
When you make an experiment you must randomly assign
To make the groups the same so your treatment is the why
When you make an experiment you must randomly assign
To make the groups the same so your treatment is the why
Lyrics © Mary McLellan
may sing to the tune of Toni Basil's "Mickey"
Hey cluster- you’re a group. I will sample all of you
HEY CLUSTER
HEY CLUSTER
Hey cluster- you’re a group. I will sample all of you
HEY CLUSTER
HEY CLUSTER
Hey cluster- you’re a group. I’ll take all from some of you
HEY CLUSTER
HEY CLUSTER
Hey cluster- you’re a group. I’ll take all from some of you
HEY CLUSTER
STRATIFY
STRATIFY
Homogeneous, every single group is homogenous.
STRATIFY
STRATIFY
Homogeneous
I get all kinds cuz- I get you and you and some of all of you
Music and lyrics ©2017 by Lawrence Mark Lesser
Big questions are limited when they’re just YES or NO,
Like “Is race important?”: This question is called “closed”.
Some questions are double-barreled -- they ask two sep’rate things,
Like “Do you like French fries and onion rings?”
CHORUS: Question the questions on ev’ry single poll so the answers will be meaningful!
Some questions are leading, now don’t you agree?
Could you tell what I want for you to say to me?
Some items are loaded like “rate the foreign plan
Of Barack Hussein Obama, who has a Muslim Kenyan dad.”
Some questions are too complex -- here is an instance:
Should Congress not be prohibited from banning pot because it will decrease driving under the influence?
That item’s many clauses or negation words,
Make it hard to follow, understanding is blurred.
(Repeat CHORUS)
Some options are not exhaustive, like askin’ someone’s faith
With “atheist” and “Christian” all that is displayed.
And options not disjoint can also be a trap
Like “teenage” and “voting age” have overlap.
Some questions omit the option “prefer not to answer”:
With sensitive data and beliefs, it’s a major factor.
Some scales are unbalanced, like rating this song we’ve shared
As “excellent”, “very good”, “good”, or “fair”.
(Repeat CHORUS)