# Conditional Probability

• ### Poem: The Law of Statistics

"The Law of Statistics" is a poem by Scottish poet Eveline Pye from Glasgow Caledonin University. The poem was originally published in the February 2016 issue of Talking Writing magazine. "The Law of Statistics" is about the case of Sally Clark, who was wrongly convicted in England of killing two of her children based on an error in "expert" testimony regarding the probability of two crib deaths in the same family. The poem might be used in course discussions about conditional probability and Bayes Theorem.
• ### Webinar: Mites and Wilt Disease - Using Simulation to Examine a 2 x 2 Table

January 26, 2010 webinar presented by Alicia Gram, Smith College, and hosted by Leigh Slauson, Capital University. This webinar describes an activity that uses data collected from an experiment looking at the relationship between two categorical variables: whether a cotton plant was exposed to spider mites; and did the plant contract Wilt disease? The activity uses randomization to explore whether there is a difference between the occurrence of the disease with and without the mites. The webinar includes a discussion of the learning goals of the activity, followed by an implementation of the activity then suggestions for assessment. The implementation first uses a physical simulation, then a simulation using technology. (Extra materials, including Fathom instructions for the simulation, available for download free of charge).

• ### Quote: Reasoner on Statistics

Statistics are to baseball what a flaky crust is to Mom's apple pie. is a quote by American television journalist Harry Reasoner (1923 - 1991). The quote was said in a story on the news magazine show, "60 minutes."
• ### Quote: Machol on Coincidences

Most accidents in well-designed systems involve two or more events of low probability occurring in the worst possible combination. is a quote by American systems engineering expert Robert E. Machol (1917 - 1998). The quote is found in his 1975 column "Principles of Operations Research" for the journal "Interfaces" vol. 5, pages 53-54 (this column was titled "The Titanic Coincidence."
• ### Analysis Tools: Online Calculator BrightStat.com

BrightStat is a free online application for statistical analyses. Besides many non-parametric tests, BrightStat offers multiple linear regression, logistic regression, ANOVA and repeated measurements ANOVA as well as Kaplan Meier Survival analysis. BrightStat has an easy to use GUI and supports the creation of mostly used scientifc graphs such as line-, bar-, scatter- and box-plots as well as histograms.

• ### Song: Probability

A song to teach various concepts in probability. Written by Mary Pat Campbell for Mathcamp 2002 at Colorado College. May be sung to the tune of "Take a Chance on Me" by ABBA. Musical accompaniment realization by Joshua Lintz and vocals by Mariana Sandoval from University of Texas at El Paso.

• ### Cartoon: Thomas Jefferson's Motivation

A cartoon to teach ideas of conditional probability. Cartoon by John Landers (www.landers.co.uk) based on an idea from Dennis Pearl (The Ohio State University) in 2008. Free to use in the classroom and on course web sites.

• ### Bayesian Calculator

This page uses Bayes' Theorem to calculate the probability of a hypothesis given a datum. An example about cancer is given to help users understand Bayes' Theorem and the calculator. Key Word: Conditional Probability.
• ### Polls: What Do the Numbers Tell Us?

This tutorial opens with a survey on polling. Upon completing the survey, students are taken through an election example which uses polling to explain random sampling, bias, margin of error, and confidence intervals.
• ### Poem: Why Richard Cory Offed Himself

This poem, by North Carolina State University Emeritus Professor of Physics Jasper D. Memory (1935 - ) is designed to teach the difference between the probability of having a disease given a positive screening test and the probability of a positive test result given you have the disease. The poem was published in the October, 2007 issue of "Mathematics Magazine" volume 80 p. 273,