Resource Library

February 9, 2010 T&L webinar presented by Hollylynne Lee (North Carolina State University) and Todd Lee (Elon University), and hosted by Jackie Miller (The Ohio State University). A model for probabilistic reasoning will be discussed that may support students' statistical reasoning. The development of the model and instructional implications are based on theoretical considerations and empirical results from work with middle grades students. Significant time for discussion is planned to get reactions to the model as well as to discuss aspects of probability that participants believe are foundational to building statistical literacy or reasoning.

I can prove anything by statistics except the truth is a quote by British politician George Canning (1770 - 1827). The quote is found on page 587 of the 1908 book "Dictionary of Thoughts" edited by Tryon Edwards. The quote may be used to illustrate the idea that statistical inference is often geared toward demonstrating what is unlikely to be true rather than proving what is true.

Statistics are to baseball what a flaky crust is to Mom's apple pie. is a quote by American television journalist Harry Reasoner (1923 - 1991). The quote was said in a story on the news magazine show, "60 minutes."

The true logic of this world is the calculus of probabilities. This is a quote of Scottish physicist and mathematician James Clerk Maxwell (1831 - 1879). The quote is found on page 197 in volume 1 of "The Scientific Letters and Papers of James Clerk Maxwell, (James Clerk Maxwell and Peter Michael Harman, ed.)".

This joke can be used in a discussion of how sample size affects the reliability of the sample mean. The joke may be found amongst the extensive Science Jokes resources at www.newyorkscienceteacher.com

Inside every nonBayesian there is a Bayesian struggling to get out. is a quote by British Bayesian Statistician Dennis V. Lindley (1923- ). The quote is also cited on page 497 of E.T. Jaynes 2003 book "Probability Theory: The Logic of Science".

I bet on a horse at ten-to-one. It didn't come in until half-past five. is a quote by comedian and violinist Henny Youngman (1906 - 1998).

Certitude is not the test of certainty. We have been cock-sure of many things that were not so. is a quote of American Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. (1841 - 1935). The quote is found in an article written by Justice Holmes in 1918 for the "Harvard Law Review" v. 32, page 40. The quote is also found in the book "Statistically Speaking, a Dictionary of Quotations" by Carl Gaither and Alma Cavazos-Gaither.

Most accidents in well-designed systems involve two or more events of low probability occurring in the worst possible combination. is a quote by American systems engineering expert Robert E. Machol (1917 - 1998). The quote is found in his 1975 column "Principles of Operations Research" for the journal "Interfaces" vol. 5, pages 53-54 (this column was titled "The Titanic Coincidence."

This anecdote about luck and the horseshoe is found in "Bartlett's Book of Anecdotes" (2000: page 68).