Using data, student sexperiences and collaboration in developing probabilistic reasoning at the introductory tertiary level.

In the focus over the past decade on data-driven, realistic approaches to building statistical literacy and data analysis curriculum, the explicit development of probability reasoning beyond coins and dice has received less attention. There are two aspects of probability at the introductory tertiary level: for use in introductory data analysis; and as foundation for further study in statistical modelling and applications, and increasingly in areas in information technology, engineering, finance, health and others. This paper advocates a minimalist objective-oriented approach in the former, and a constructivist, collaborative and data-linked approach in the latter. The latter is the main focus here, with strategies to help students unpack, analyse and extend what they have brought with them to tertiary study, enabling them to consciously develop coherent probabilistic understanding and linking with real investigations and processes.