Developing notions of inference using probability simulation tools

This paper focuses on how notions of inference can be fostered in middle school through the use of carefully designed tasks, open-ended software simulation tools, and social activity that focuses on making data-based arguments. We analyzed interactions between two sixth-grade students who used software tools to formulate and evaluate inferences during a 12-day instructional program that utilized Probability Explorer software as a primary investigation tool. A variety of the software tools enabled students to understand the interplay between empirical and theoretical probability, recognize the importance of using larger samples to make inferences, and justify their claims with data-based evidence.