Defying Intuition: Demonstrating the Importance of the Empirical Technique


Authors: 
Kohn, A.
Category: 
Volume: 
19(4)
Pages: 
217-219
Year: 
1992
Publisher: 
Teaching of Psychology
Abstract: 

A simple stay-switch probability game demonstrates the importance of empirically testing our beliefs. Based on intuition, most undergraduate subjects believe that a stay strategy leads to a higher percentage of winning, and most faculty subjects believe that the staying and switching strategies yield equal probabilities of winning. However, a simple in-class experiment proves that switching wins twice as often as staying. Rather than teaching specific probability principles, this demonstration emphasizes reliance on empirically validating our beliefs. A follow-up questionnaire shows that participating in this experiment may increase students' trust in the empirical method.

The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education

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