Most decisions in uncertain situations involve comparison of the probabilities of success under the alternative choices, and selection of that alternative where the chances of success are higher. Hence the ability to discriminate between probabilities of varying discrepancies is crucial in such tasks. The development of that capacity was examined in two previous experiments. The purpose of the present study is to identify the principles of choice in individual response patterns. One of the educational implications of this study is that the teaching of probability to children should be carefully planned. The lesson to be learned from the results of the present research, in conjunction with earlier studies, is that the concept of proportion (and probability) is very elusive.
The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education