Children's calibration of subjective probability as a lens on their reasoning about uncertainty

This study examined the calibration techniques from the adult judgment and decision making literature for the purposes of assessing the adequacy of children's subjective probability judgments. Two hundred eighty-eight children from an inner-city school participated in the study. In accordance with the adult decision making literature, the children were consistently overconfident in their subjective probability judgments Gender and culture were each found to have a significant effect on the degree of overconfidence.