Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980


Book: 
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Authors: 
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, L. D.
Editors: 
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A.
Type: 
Category: 
Pages: 
306-334
Year: 
1982
Publisher: 
Cambridge University Press
Place: 
New York
Abstract: 

The experimental literature on the calibration of assessors making probability judgments about discrete propositions is reviewed in the first section of this chapter. The second section looks at the calibration of probability density functions assessed for uncertain numerical quantities. Although calibration is essentially a property of individuals, most of the studies reviewed here have reported data grouped across assessors in order to secure the large quantities of data needed for stable estimates of calibration.