We use functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and behavioral analyses to study the neural roots of biases in causal reasoning.<br>Fourteen participants were given a task requiring them to interpret data relative to plausible and implausible causal theories. Encountering<br>covariation-based data during the evaluation of a plausible theory as opposed to an implausible theory selectively recruited neural tissue in the<br>prefrontal and occipital cortices. In addition, the plausibility of a causal theory modulated the recruitment of distinct neural tissue depending<br>on the extent to which the data were consistent versus inconsistent with the theory provided. Specifically, evaluation of data consistent with<br>a plausible causal theory recruited neural tissue in the parahippocampal gyrus, whereas evaluating data inconsistent with a plausible theory<br>recruited neural tissue in the anterior cingulate, left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and precuneus. We suggest that these findings provide a<br>neural instantiation of the mechanisms by which working hypotheses and evidence are integrated in the brain.
The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education