A series of studies was conducted to elucidate a phenomenon here referred to as the "illusion of control". An illusion of control was defined as expectancy of a personal success probability inappropriately higher than the objective probability would warrant. It was predicted that factors from skill situations (competition, choice, familiarity, involvement) introduced into chance situations cause individuals to feel inapproriately confident. In Study 1 subejcts cut cards against either a confident or a nervous competitor: in Study 2 lottery participants were or were not given a choice of ticket; in Study 3 lottery participants were or were not given a choice of either familiar or unfamiliar lottery tickets; in Study 4, in a novel chance game, subjects either had or did not have practice and responded either themselves or by proxy; in Study 5 lottery participants at a racetrack were asked their confidence at different times; finally, in Study 6 lottery participants either received a single three-digit ticket or one digit on each of 3 days. Indicators of confidence in all six studies supported the prediction.
The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education