The research question in this study was assessing possible relationships between formal<br>knowledge of conditional probability as well as biases related to conditional probability reasoning: fallacy of<br>the transposed conditional; fallacy of the time axis; base rate fallacy; synchronic and diachronic situations;<br>conjunction fallacy; and confusing independence and mutually exclusiveness. Two samples of university<br>students majoring in psychology and following the same introductory statistics course were given the CPR<br>test before (n = 177) and after (n = 206) formal teaching of conditional probability. Results indicate a<br>systematic improvement in formal understanding of conditional probability and in problem solving capacity<br>but little change in those items related to psychological biases
The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education