UNIVERSITY STUDENTS' KNOWLEDGE AND BIASES<br>IN CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY REASONING


Authors: 
Carmen D&iacute;az &amp; Carmen Batanero
Volume: 
4(3)
Pages: 
online
Year: 
2009
Publisher: 
International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education
URL: 
http://www.iejme.com/032009/IEJME_p02_diazbatanero_E.pdf
Abstract: 

The research question in this study was assessing possible relationships between formal<br>knowledge of conditional probability as well as biases related to conditional probability reasoning: fallacy of<br>the transposed conditional; fallacy of the time axis; base rate fallacy; synchronic and diachronic situations;<br>conjunction fallacy; and confusing independence and mutually exclusiveness. Two samples of university<br>students majoring in psychology and following the same introductory statistics course were given the CPR<br>test before (n = 177) and after (n = 206) formal teaching of conditional probability. Results indicate a<br>systematic improvement in formal understanding of conditional probability and in problem solving capacity<br>but little change in those items related to psychological biases

The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education