Pig data and Bayesian inference on multinomial probabilities.

Bayesian inference on multinomial probabilities is conducted based on data collected from the game Pass the Pigs®. Prior information on these probabilities is readily available from the instruction manual, and is easily incorporated in a Dirichlet prior. Posterior analysis of the scoring probabilities quantifies the discrepancy between empirical and prior estimates, and yields posterior predictive simulations used to compare competing extreme strategies.