In this study we evaluated the thinking of 3rd-grade students in relation to an instructional program in probability. The instructional program was informed by a research-based framework and included a description of students' probabilistic thinking. Both an early- and a delayed-instruction group participated in the program. Qualitative evidence from 4 target students revealed that overcoming a misconception in sample space, applying both part-part and part-whole reasoning, and using invented language to describe probabilities where key patterns in producing growth in probabilistic thinking. Moreover, 51% of the students exhibited the latter 2 learning patterns by the end of instruction, and both groups displayed significant growth in probabilistic thinking following the intervention.
The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education