The Teaching Of Confidence Interval And Prediction Interval


Book: 
Proceedings of the sixth international conference on teaching statistics, Developing a statistically literate society
Authors: 
Hin, P. A. & Ping, T. P.
Editors: 
Phillips, B.
Category: 
Pages: 
Online
Year: 
2002
Publisher: 
International Statistical Institute
URL: 
http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~iase/publications/1/10_28_hi.pdf
Abstract: 

We attempt to use simulation to teach confidence interval for the slope parameter and prediction interval for the future observation in the simple linear regression model. Computer program in JAVA is written to illustrate the simulation in a step-by-step manner. As the observation vector is being generated, the scatter diagram, fitted line and confidence interval will be displayed. Histograms for the individual observations will be built up slowly and the proportion of confidence intervals covering the true value will be updated .The students will realize that the proportion tends to the desired value. Similarly prediction interval can be taught by using simulation .The students will realize that the average value of the proportion of the future observations falling inside the prediction interval tends to the desired value.

The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education