The analysis of historical development and philosophical ideas has shown the multifaceted character of probability. Kolmogorov's axiomatic structure does not reflect the complexity of ideas. The abundance of paradoxes not only occurred in the historical development of the discipline, it is also apparent in the individual learning process. Misconceptions are obstacles to comprehending and accepting theoretical ideas. Empirical research on probabilistic thinking aims to clarify and classify such misconceptions from both the theoretical as well as the individual's perspective. We present major research ideas of psychology and didactics of mathematics from a critical perspective. Our method of interpreting subjects' responses to experimental situations will be a complementarity of intuitions and official mathematics which is especially helpful for transferring ideas to actual teaching.
The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education