Prediction and Judgment as Indicators of Sensitivity to Covariation of Continuous Variables

The present study used both judgments of strength of relationship and measures of the ability to predict one variable from another to assess subjects' sensitivity to the covariation of two continuous variables. In addition, one group of subjects judged strength of relationship after merely observing the presentation of 60 pairs of two-digit numbers, and a second group made strength judgments after being actively engaged in predicting one member of a pair when given the other. The prediction and judgment data provide different pictures of subjects' sensitivity to covariation. The subjects were quite poor at estimating strength of relationship but, by some measures, good at predicting one variable from another. Judgments were not strongly influenced by whether subjects had previously engaged in overt prediction. The implications of these results for the literature on covariation estimation are discussed.