Development of the Concept of Comparative Subjective Probability

This study investigates which formal principles govern subjective probability, and whether the validity of these principles depends on age. Two types of tasks were administered to 144 subjects from 3;8 to 19 years: a gambling task (with objective probabilities) and a sporting task (without objective probabilities). Six formal principles of the mathematical concept of qualitative probability (a non-numerical concept based on ordinal scale properties) were tested. Results indicate that these principles are valid as principles of subjective probability for all age groups. Only the youngest age group (4 years or younger) had a smaller degree of confirmation.