Issues in assessing conceptual understanding in probability and statistics

Research has shown that adults have intuitions about probability and statistics that, in many cases, are at odds with accepted theory. The existence of these strongly-held ideas may explain, in part, why learning probability and statistics is especially problematic. One objective of introductory instruction ought to be to help students replace these informal conceptions with more normative ones. Based on this research, items are currently being developed to assess conceptual understanding before and after instruction.