The Use of Multiple Items to Identify Misconceptions in Probabilistic Reasoning

A three stage model was used in developing and evaluating an instructional unit on probability. The focus of this paper is on the first and third stages of the model, both of which depend on the design of ways to identify misconceptions. In previous studies, researchers have used changes in performance on individual items to evaluate the effectiveness of instructional interventions. The instrument used in the present study borrows heavily from earlier research. The instrument differs from previous instruments not in the content of the items but in the way responses to items are analyzed. Pairs of items are designed so that meaningful error patterns can be identified when responses to both items are considered. The identification of error patterns can be identified when responses to both items are considered. The identification of error patterns allows assessment that goes beyond the reporting of gain scores. Once error patterns are identified, an intervention can be evaluated according to the types of misconceptions (i.e., error patterns) that are affected.