Subjective randomness


Book: 
Encyclopedia of statistical sciences
Authors: 
Falk, R., & Konold, C.
Editors: 
Kotz, S., Read, C. B., & Banks, D. L.
Type: 
Category: 
Pages: 
653-659
Year: 
1998
Publisher: 
J. Wiley & Sons
Abstract: 

Early generalizations concerning conceptions of randomness were based on "probability-learning" experiments in which subjects predicted successive elements of random sequences, receiving trial-by-trial feedback. The conclusion was that humans are incapable of perceiving randomness. Convinced there was some pattern in the stimuli, most subjects believed the oncoming event depended on preceding ones (Lee [29]). The predicted sequenes that deviated systematically from randomness. However, evidence concerning people's notion of randonmness in these expereiments is indirect. The produced sequences, which are influenced by various feedback contingencies, may largely reflect subjects' hypotheses concerning the goal of the experiment and their problem-solving strategies.

The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education