The conjunction fallacy?


Authors: 
Wolford, G., Taylor, H. A., & Beck, J. R.
Category: 
Volume: 
18(1)
Pages: 
47-53
Year: 
1990
Publisher: 
Memory and Cognition
Abstract: 

Tversky and Kahneman showed that when subjects are asked to rate the likelihood of several alternatives, including single and joint events, they often make a "conjunction fallacy." That is, they rate the conjunction of two events as being more likely than one of the constituent events. We argue that in some contexts, an alternative that contains the conjunction of two events can be more probable than an alternative that contains only one of the conjunction constituent events. We carried out four experiments in which we manipulated this context.

The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education