This article provides a critical review of psychological theories and research approaches on the ontogenesis of the probability concept. An analysis of the conceptualization and interpretation or probability within developmental research reveals that with only one exception on objectivistic interpretation of probability has been made. The reviewed (theoretical) research approaches, the cognitive developmental theory of PIAGET & INHELDER, FISCHBEIN's learning-developmental approach, and verious information processing model's differ in two main aspects. Firstly on the question whether the development should be considered to be a continuous or discontinuous process, and secondly the role of conceptual versus strategic knowledge for coping with probability problems is disputed. The discussion tries to point out what progress could be gained by skipping a one-sided objectivistic interpretation of the probability concept and turning to a conceptualization of probability encompassing both sides, the objectivistic and subjectivistic view. This integration might also lead to a deeper understanding of the individual's conceptualization of uncertainty.
The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education