During the three years 1978-1981 a research project based at Loughborough in the East Midlands region of England investigated probability concepts of 11-16 year olds. A test of twenty-six questions was administered to a stratified sample of 2930 pupils from comprehensive mixed schools. These pupils were also given a test of general reasoning ability. the project's findings have been summarized in a 40 page booklet which includes all the test questions and analyses of responses. Nearly all test items, displayed an improvement in performance with increasing chronological age and with intellectual ability. Items requiring only the comparison of two direct quantities were well done by all ages tested (11 to 16 years), but those requiring comparison of two ratios were very poorly done, especially below the age of 15 years. This contrast is exemplified by the results for the two items. In this article we shall look at the development and test results of just one of the questions used.
The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education