Literature Index

This report discusses the goals and accomplishments of PROJECT STARC over Year 1.

The "Problem of the Three Prisoners," a counterintuitive puzzle in probability, is reanalyzed, following Shimojo and Ichikawa (1989). Several intuitions that are examined represent attempts to find a simple and commonsensical criterion to predict whether and how the probability of the target event will change as a result of obtaining evidence. However, despite the psychological appeal of these attempts, none proves to be valid in general. A necessary and sufficient condition for change in the probability of the target event, following observation of new data, is proposed. That criterion is an extension to any number of alternatives, of the likelihood principle, that holds in the case of only two complementary alternatives. It is based on comparison of the likelihood of the data, given the truth of the target possibility, with the weighted average of the other likelihoods. This criterion is shown to be psychologically sound, and it may be assimilated to the point of becoming a secondary intuition.

This study compared levels of statistics anxiety and attitude toward statistics for graduate<br><br>students in on-campus and online statistics courses. The Survey of Attitudes Toward Statistics<br><br>and three subscales of the Statistics Anxiety Rating Scale were administered at the beginning and<br><br>end of graduate level educational statistic courses. Significant effects were observed for two<br><br>anxiety scales (Interpretation and Test and Class Anxiety) and two attitude scales (Affect and<br><br>Difficulty). Observed decreases in anxiety and increases in attitudes by online students offer<br><br>encouragement to faculty that materials and techniques can be used to reduce anxiety and<br><br>hopefully enhance learning within online statistics courses

Operating room (OR) management differs from clinical anesthesia in that statistical literacy<br><br>is needed daily to make good decisions. Two of the authors teach a course in operations research<br><br>for surgical services to anesthesiologists, anesthesia residents, OR nursing directors, hospital<br><br>administration students, and analysts to provide them with the knowledge to make evidencebased management decisions. Some of these students do not remember enough of their basic<br><br>statistics class(es) to understand the principles presented. We performed a systematic, qualitative<br><br>survey of previous experimental and quasi-experimental studies of the impact of a computer on<br><br>student learning of the basic statistical topics that form a prerequisite to the management course.<br><br>Computer-assisted instruction enhanced student learning of the basic statistical topics.<br><br>We created slides containing both hyperlinks to specific pages of Rice University's introductorylevel free web-based "Online Statistics Book" and OR management examples to provide contex<br>for the material. The website is effective at teaching the material because it directs students<br><br>to test their predictions, which has been shown to enhance learning. Once students have<br><br>completed the statistics review, they have sufficient background to learn the material in the<br><br>OR management course. The students use an interactive Excel spreadsheet dealing with OR<br><br>management topics to provide additional computer-assisted instruction