Probability and the short run illusion: Perceptions and misperceptions

Authors: 
Zwiers, F. W., & Kelly, I. W.
Type: 
Journal Article
Category: 
Teaching
Volume: 
86(2)
Pages: 
149-155
Year: 
1986
Publisher: 
School Science and Mathematics
Abstract: 

In this article we have provided teachers with four examples of short run illustrations which students can analyze and reflect upon. The examples provided can be handled by high school students once they realize that with suitable assumptions, the binomial distribution provides a reasonable approximation to the operation of chance in reality.

The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education