The conjunction fallacy: a misunderstanding about conjunction?


Authors: 
Katya Tentori, Nicolao Bonini and Daniel Osherson
Volume: 
28(1)
Pages: 
online
Year: 
2004
Publisher: 
Cognitive Science
URL: 
http://www.princeton.edu/~osherson/papers/katya14.pdf
Abstract: 

It is easy to construct pairs of sentences X, Y that lead many people to ascribe higher probability to<br>the conjunction X-and-Y than to the conjuncts X, Y. Whether an error is thereby committed depends<br>on reasoners' interpretation of the expressions "probability" and "and." We report two experiments<br>designed to clarify the normative status of typical responses to conjunction problems.

The CAUSE Research Group is supported in part by a member initiative grant from the American Statistical Association’s Section on Statistics and Data Science Education