[SBI] A fun problem to start your summers...

Happy summer everyone, I thought I would send out a message I received yesterday. A local journalist reached out to me (I taught his daughters) with the following question, and I thought it was a nice problem to send out to everyone. Even though our school year is over, I've sent it along to my students to see if anyone is interested to try and answer this question for him, or even to possibly present to the local town council. Enjoy! In 2007, Ross Valley residents voted on a flood tax. You had to sign the ballot (which was unusual) and 21% of the ballots were not signed and thrown out. The "valid" votes were split essentially 50-50 (50.1% "no" vs. 49.9% "yes") but the 1,672 tossed out votes were 56.33% "no" and 43.67% "yes." Assuming there is no reason why the unsigned ballots would be more likely "yes" or "no, " can you calculate the odds of this 56.33-43.67 split for a 50-50 event? Many of us suspect foul play, and the matter is of urgency now as the tax money is about to be used to tear up San Anselmo's Memorial Park. Your names will NOT be used; it's purely my mathematical curiosity. Thanks. -- Barry Kevin -- Kevin Rees Math Department Chair Marin Academy www.ma.org 415-482-3260