HI Josh,
Thanks. I piloted the ISI material 2 years ago after Alan asked if I was
interested. My only concern was the lack of probability and some of the
other AP stuff. Last year I did infuse some of the simulation activities.
I don't know of many AP teachers that are doing this, so I really
appreciate the response.
I am still using The Practice of Statistics 2e, so I am sure you cam
imagine how I must supplement. I do plan on starting each simulation
chapter with a simulation and then move into the traditional approach.
I am also an AP reader, so maybe I can spend a little time in KC and
"compare notes".
Thanks for your response!
Bob Peterson
@apstatspeterson
On Thu, Jan 1, 2015 at 10:43 PM, Josh Tabor <joshtabor(a)hotmail.com> wrote:
Hi Robert-
I am an AP teacher and love to incorporate simulation-based inference into
my AP course. I do this in several ways.
1. When we cover experimental design at the beginning of the year, we
always do an actual experiment in class. Typically we do a completely
randomized experiment to see if caffeine affects pulse rates (using Coke
and caffeine-free Coke). Then, we analyze the results using simulation.
We start the simulation by hand using notecards and finish using an
applet. If you are interested in the applets, there are several good sites
that are set up for various randomization tests (see below).
2. In the middle of the year, we spend a few days on simulations as part
of the probability chapters. Whenever possible, I try to incorporate the
logic of inference in these questions. For example, instead of saying that
“If 25% of all boxes of cereal have a prize, how likely is it to get at
most 1 prize in 10 boxes?” I say “Johnny bought 10 boxes and only got 1
prize. He is suspicious that the cereal company actually puts prizes in
fewer than 25% of the boxes. Find the probability that he gets at most 1
prize in 10 boxes, assuming that 25% of the boxes have a prize. Is
Johnny’s suspicion justified? Explain.”
3. At the beginning of most major inference test (one proportion,
difference of two means, difference of two proportions, chi square
goodness-of-fit, slope), I start with a simulation based approach to
introduce the big ideas. It definitely helps students understand the logic
of inference and the meaning of p-values. My textbook (The Practice of
Statistics 5e) has some of these built in to the student edition and others
in the teacher’s edition. Or, you can design your own based on examples or
exercises from the chapter.
Another benefit of using the simulation-based approach in AP is that there
have also been several simulation-based inference questions on recent AP
exams, including 2009 #6, 2009B #5, 2010 #6, and 2013 #5. These items can
be found at the following website:
http://apcentral.collegeboard.com/apc/members/exam/exam_information/8357.ht…
(scroll down) for those interested in seeing them.
Regarding applets, there are several good sites with applets designed for
the most common randomization tests. Check out
www.lock5stat.com/statkey,
www.whfreeman.com/SRIS, or
http://www.rossmanchance.com/ISIapplets.html.
I hope this helps!
Josh
*From:* sbi-bounces(a)causeweb.org [mailto:sbi-bounces@causeweb.org] *On
Behalf Of *Robert Peterson
*Sent:* Thursday, January 01, 2015 6:25 AM
*To:* sbi(a)causeweb.org
*Subject:* [SBI] Simulation methods in an AP course
Does anyone have some insight on how to blend simulation methods concepts
with the AP curriculum. Also I will be starting inference soon, so I would
love to hear ideas and experiences. My problem is I really love the ISI
material, but at the same time my students must know the formulas and
conditions from the theory based methods.
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