Chance News 61

Census errors

Can you trust Census data?
Freakonomics blog, New York Times, 2 February 2010
Justin Wolfers

Bureau obscured personal data—Too well, some say
Numbers Guy blog, Wall Street Journal, 6 February 2010
Carl Bialik

To be continued...

Submitted by Bill Peterson

Height bias or data dredging?

Soccer referees hate the tall guys
Wall Street Journal, 8 Feburary 2010

According to the article, "Niels van Quaquebeke and Steffen R. Giessner, researchers at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, compiled refereeing data from seven seasons of the German Bundesliga and the UEFA Champions League, as well as three World Cups (123,844 fouls in total)" and found:

Height Difference	Probability of Foul Against Taller Player
1-5 cm	52.0%
6-10 cm	55.4%
> 10 cm	58.8%

Avg. Height of Perpetrator	Avg. Height of Victim
182.4 cm	181.5 cm

Note that the height difference on average is only 0.9 cm!

To be continued... Submitted by Paul Alper

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“New Poll Shows Support for Repeal of ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’”
by Dalia Sussman, The New York Times, February 11, 2010

This is a brief article describing how the wording of a recent NYT/CBS News poll affected the results.

When half of the respondents were asked their opinions about permitting “gay men and lesbians” to serve in the military, 70% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it. Of the other half of respondents who were asked about permitting “homosexuals” to serve, only 59% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it. The gap was much wider (79% to 43%) for respondents identifying themselves as Democrats.

One blogger commented, “It’s simple. Prudish Americans are squeamish about any word that includes the root word of ‘sex.’” Another blogger pointed to the importance of constructing ballot questions carefully.

Jeff Witmer referred ISOSTAT readers to the complete poll results available at the CBS News website [1].

Submitted by Margaret Cibes at the suggestion of Jim Greenwood