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A reasonable explanation for the probability confusion alluded to in
   a.) Linda is a bank teller.
   b.) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.

is that the language of logic and the language of English are not identical. For example, "Or" in logic means either X or Y or both, whereas "or" in English usually means the exclusive "Or" in logic, either X or Y but not both.

When it comes to "and," the reader, when not misreading the "and" for "or," tends to substitute "who," so instead of X and Y, the reader is really considering X|Y which, depending on the readers view of feminists and bank tellers, may or may not lead to the belief that (b) is more likely than (a).

Submitted by Paul Alper

Forecasting Campaign 2010

T'he Wall Street Journal
October 23, 2010
The Numbers Guy (Carl Blank)] says.

My print column this week examines the tough task facing forecasters of the House of Representatives races this fall. Political scientists, veteran pundits and number crunchers have advanced the field considerably from several decades ago, thanks to freely available poll data and advanced computer models, but they still run up against inherent challenges of quantifying public mood and the small number of observations: There is only one midterm election every four years, after all.

Of course it is interesting to see how the predictions were

freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.

the prediction of the model is that the Democrats will end up with 199 seats, or a loss of 56 seats.

Submitted by Laurie Snell
To be continued