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dealt with what the British call League Tables but we would call rankings.  David's [http://plus.maths.org/issue45/risk/ first column] appeared in Issue 44. Here David provides an example of a ranking where the outcomes should be pure chance but often do not look like pure chance.  In his [http://plus.maths.org/issue46/risk/index.html second column] which appeared in Issue 45, David provides an example where the outcomes should be  predoinantly skill also luck plays a role and he shows how to estimate how much of a role luck plays.  In this  the discussion is similar to our discussion of  "Is poker a predominatly a game of skill or luck that we discussed in [http://chance.dartmouth.edu/chancewiki/index.php/Chance_News_29#Is_Poker_predominantly_skill_or_luck.3F Chance News 29]
==Joe DiMaggio's Streak==
[http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/30/opinion/30strogatz.html?scp=1&sq=dimaggio+record&st=nytA Journey to Baseball's Alternate Universe]<br>
Samual Arbesman and Steven Strogatz<br>
Op-Ed, March 30, 2008


In the UK National Lottery 6 numbers are randomly chosen from the numbers from 1 to 49.  If you correctly predict the six numbers chosen you get a share of the jackpot.
In 1941 Joe DiMaggio had a 56-game hitting streak. The authors used simulation to estimate the probability that in the history of baseball a player has a streak of 56 or more hits. By history of baseball the authors mean since 1871 when 
the first professional baseball league, the National Association of Professional Base Ball Players, was established. They used baseball data from 1871 to 2005 available, for example,
from [http://www.baseball1.com/statistics/readme53.txt. here]
 
For every player and every season played they simulated the player getting a hit or not
using the batting average as the probability of getting a hit each time at bat. Then they recorded the longest streak for each each season the player played. They repeat this 10,000 times and take the average of the longest streaks as and estimation of

Revision as of 19:39, 14 April 2008

Joe DiMaggio's Streak

Journey to Baseball's Alternate Universe
Samual Arbesman and Steven Strogatz
Op-Ed, March 30, 2008

In 1941 Joe DiMaggio had a 56-game hitting streak. The authors used simulation to estimate the probability that in the history of baseball a player has a streak of 56 or more hits. By history of baseball the authors mean since 1871 when 

the first professional baseball league, the National Association of Professional Base Ball Players, was established. They used baseball data from 1871 to 2005 available, for example,
from here

For every player and every season played they simulated the player getting a hit or not using the batting average as the probability of getting a hit each time at bat. Then they recorded the longest streak for each each season the player played. They repeat this 10,000 times and take the average of the longest streaks as and estimation of

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