Chance News 111: Difference between revisions
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by John von Radowitz, ''Irish Independent'', 30 June 2017 | by John von Radowitz, ''Irish Independent'', 30 June 2017 | ||
Ryanair | Ryanair is a low-cost Irish airline. This [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryanair Wikipedia entry] notes | ||
that they have often faced criticism for misleading advertising. | |||
The ''Irish Times'' article considers the airline's policy that passengers who did not wish to pay for preferred seating will be | |||
The researchers | assigned seats "at random." The BBC consumer affairs programme, 'Watchdog' asked statisticians at Oxford University to test this claim. | ||
The researchers had four groups of four passengers book travel on four | |||
1:540,000,000. | separate flights using Ryanair's random seating option. On every flight, all the passengers got middle seats. | ||
They estimated the odds of this happening at about 1:540,000,000. | |||
Compare this to the 1:45,000,000 odds of winning the UK National Lottery jackpot | |||
Dr Jennifer Rogers, director of Oxford University's Statistical | Dr Jennifer Rogers, director of Oxford University's Statistical | ||
Consultancy, said: "This is a highly controversial topic and my analysis | Consultancy, said: "This is a highly controversial topic and my analysis | ||
Revision as of 18:38, 5 July 2017
July 1, 2017 to ...
Quotations
Forsooth
"Random" seat allocation
Ryanair's 'random' seat allocation not random - scientists
by John von Radowitz, Irish Independent, 30 June 2017
Ryanair is a low-cost Irish airline. This Wikipedia entry notes that they have often faced criticism for misleading advertising.
The Irish Times article considers the airline's policy that passengers who did not wish to pay for preferred seating will be assigned seats "at random." The BBC consumer affairs programme, 'Watchdog' asked statisticians at Oxford University to test this claim. The researchers had four groups of four passengers book travel on four separate flights using Ryanair's random seating option. On every flight, all the passengers got middle seats. They estimated the odds of this happening at about 1:540,000,000. Compare this to the 1:45,000,000 odds of winning the UK National Lottery jackpot
Dr Jennifer Rogers, director of Oxford University's Statistical Consultancy, said: "This is a highly controversial topic and my analysis cast doubt on whether Ryanair's seat allocation can be purely random." A bookings form advert on Ryanair's website offering standard seat reservations for £2 says: "Can't stand the middle seat? Don't leave it to chance, take your pick from a choice of seats. Get up to 50pc off reserved seats with prices starting at £2." A statement from Ryanair said:
We haven't changed the random seat allocation policy.
The reason for more middle seats being allocated is that more and more passengers are taking our reserved seats (from just £2) and these passengers overwhelmingly prefer aisle and window seats which is why people who choose random (free of charge) seats are more likely to be allocated middle seats.
Some random seat passengers are confused by the appearance of empty seats beside them when they check-in up to four days prior to departure.
The reason they can't have these window or aisle seats is that these are more likely to be selected by reserved seat passengers, many of whom only check in 24 hours prior to departure.
Since our current load factor is 95pc, we have to keep these window and aisle seats free to facilitate those customers who are willing to pay (from £2) for them.
Submitted by Patrick O'Beirne