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More on Dennis Lindley

The last installment of Chance News included a note Dennis Lindley, who passed away last December.

Douglas Rogers noted that Lindley's obituary only recently appeared in The Guardian: Dennis Lindley obituary: Mathematician who was a leading figure in the Bayesian school of statistics
(by Dennis Hand, 16 March 2014).

Douglas also shared the following reference, which he received from Sandy Zabell. Regarding influences on Lindley, there is a nice interview of him that contains considerable information regarding this:

A conversation with Dennis LindleyStatistical by Adrian Smith, Statistical Science, v.10 n.3 (1995)

March bracket madness

Mathematicians are hoping their calculations add up to the perfect bracket
by Mary Pilon, New York Times, 15 March 2014

In N.C.A.A. tournament bracket, mathematician outdoes Matildas
by Joe Drape, New York Times, 24 March 2014

A pair of probability puzzles

[A coin problem]

Consider this simple game: flip a fair coin twice. You win if you get two heads, and lose otherwise. It’s not hard to calculate that the chances of winning are 1/4.

Your challenge is to design a game, using only a fair coin, that you have a 1/3 chance of winning.

Continues "And here is my recipe for getting the most out of this problem: if you can solve it, do not stop with one answer. Rather, see how many answers you can come up with. I’ve posed this problem to many people, and I continue to hear novel solutions."

A large urn
by Gary Antonik, Numberplay blog, New York Times, 24 March 2014

There are 600 black marbles and 400 white marbles mixed well in a large urn. You draw marbles one by one at random without replacement until you take out all the marbles of one of the colors. What is the probability that at least one white marble will be left in the urn?

Bonus: On average, how many marbles will be left in the urn?

Submitted by Bill Peterson