Sandbox: Difference between revisions

From ChanceWiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search
Line 1: Line 1:
==Some frightening graphs==
==The whole and its parts==


Most people believe that
According to [http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2014/02/12/275376259/the-full-fat-paradox-whole-milk-may-keep-us-lean NPR’s Allison Aubrey],
<blockquote>
The reason we're told to limit dairy fat seems pretty straightforward. The extra calories packed into the fat are bad for our waistlines — that's the assumption.
<br><br>
But what if dairy fat isn't the dietary demon we've been led to believe it is? New research suggests we may want to look anew.
<br><br>
In one [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3656401/  study] published by Swedish researchers in the Scandinavian Journal of Primary Health Care, middle-aged men who consumed high-fat milk, butter and cream were significantly less likely to become obese over a period of 12 years compared with men who never or rarely ate high-fat dairy.
<br><br>
Yep, that's right. The butter and whole-milk eaters did better at keeping the pounds off.
</blockquote>


# Unless treated, cancer is necessarily fatal;  and
The study itself “followed a cohort of rural men over 12 years” because “In a previous study we found that daily intake of fruit and vegetables in combination with a high dairy fat intake was associated with a lower risk of coronary heart disease”:
# The earlier cancer is diagnosed and treated, the more likely the cure
<blockquote>


Because cancer is a catchall term, #1 is certainly wrong.  Some cancers grow so slowly that death is due to another cause. Indeed, some cancers are so indolent that a person may lead an entire life unaware even of the existence of the cancer.  Therefore, in spite of its plausibility,  #2 is suspect because diagnoses based on a screening test might lead to unnecessary and harmful treatments.
1782 men (farmers and non-farmers) aged 40–60 years at baseline participated in a baseline survey (participation rate 76%) and 1589 men participated at the follow-up. 116 men with central obesity at baseline were excluded from the analyses.
The following five graphs [http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/content/102/9/605.full found in an article by Welch and Black] illustrate this conundrum of modern medicine: it can do a great deal of harm precisely because it is so good at doing things such as finding abnormalities which represent non-threatening deviations from what is deemed normal.


<center>[[File:F7.large.jpg‎ |500px ]]</center>
Central obesity was defined as waist hip ratio ≥ 1. Waist and hip measurements were taken at both surveys with a tape measure at the level of the umbilicus and at the widest part of the hips with the participants dressed in light wear.  
</blockquote>
Notice that for each of the five cancers, its time series of mortality is flat whereas the number of new diagnoses rises prohibitively over time indicating overdiagnosis and therefore, overtreatment with consequent suffering. 
As another instance of overdiagnosis, overtreatment and consequent suffering, the following three figures are taken from [http://www.bmj.com/content/348/bmj.g366 an article by Miller, et al], in the British Medical Journal (BMJ 2014;348:g366 doi: 10.1136/bmj.g366), entitled “Twenty five year follow-up for breast cancer incidence and mortality of the Canadian National Breast Screening Study: randomised screening trial.” 


<center>
[[File:F2_BCmortality.png | 500px]]
</center>


: '''Fig 2 All cause mortality, by assignment to mammography or control arms (all participants)'''
The conclusion drawn is


<br>
<blockquote>
<center>
We found that a low intake of dairy fat was associated with a higher risk of developing central obesity and that a high intake of dairy fat was associated with a lower risk of central obesity among men without central obesity at baseline. The majority of the participants were overweight or obese as defined by BMI at baseline. However, the associations between dairy fat intake and central obesity were consistent across BMI categories
[[File:F3_BCspecific.png | 500px]]
at baseline.
</center>
</blockquote>
: '''Fig 3 Breast cancer specific mortality, by assignment to mammography or control arms (all participants)'''
<br>
<center>
[[File:F4_BCdiagnosis.png | 500px]]
</center>


: '''Fig 4 Breast cancer specific mortality from cancers diagnosed in screening period, by assignment to mammography or control arms'''
The table below indicates that regardless of which model is used, on average, high fat participants have a < 1 waist hip ratio while on average, low fat participants have > 1 waist hip ratio.
Table III.
Risk of central obesity (waist hip ratio ≥ 1) at follow-up according to dairy fat intake at baseline. Only men with waist hip ratio < 1 at baseline were included.
Dairy fat intake Crude (n = 1,303) Model 11 (n = 1,285) Model 22 (n = 1,261)
OR3 95% CI OR3 95% CI OR3 95% CI
Low (no butter and low fat milk and seldom/never whipping cream) 1.40 0.97–2.03 1.45 0.99–2.11 1.53 1.05–2.24
Medium (all other combinations of spread, milk, and whipping cream) 1 1 1
High (butter and high fat milk and whipping cream daily or several times a week) 0.53 0.34–0.83 0.50 0.31–0.80 0.52 0.33–0.83
1Adjusted for fruit and vegetables daily, smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity.
2Adjusted as above plus age, education, and profession.
3Odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals.


This very large--a sample size of approximately 90,000-- 25 year randomized control trial concludes that
===Discussion===
<blockquote>
Annual mammography in women aged 40-59 does not
reduce mortality from breast cancer beyond that of physical examination
or usual care when adjuvant therapy for breast cancer is freely available.
Overall, 22% (106/484) of screen detected invasive breast cancers were
over-diagnosed, representing one over-diagnosed breast cancer for
every 424 women who received mammography screening in the trial.
</blockquote>
===Discussion===


1.  With regard to the five time series, suppose instead of overdiagnosis and overtreatment, the following (reverse causality) argument is made: despite the rise in each of the cancers, modern medicine has kept the mortality constantComment on this assertion.
1.  This Swedish study is clearly not a randomized clinical trial and depends in some manner on self reportingWhy is this a problem?  Why is any inference to a larger population also a problem?


2.  Notice that in the above Figs 2, 3 and 4, a p-value is given for the comparison between the mammography arm and the control armLooking at the curves themselves, comment as to why it makes sense that each of the p-values is well above the mystical .05.
2.  This Swedish study has males only includedHow does this limit any inference?


3. With regard to the mammography study, [http://www.bmj.com/content/348/bmj.g1403 there is an accompanying editorial in the BMJ] entitled “Too much mammography.”  This editorial goes on to compare and contrast PSA screening with mammography.  Although PSA screening and mammography seem to be very similar "owing to [the] small effect on mortality and large risk of overdiagnosis ([http://www.screening.nhs.uk/prostatecancer]),"
3.   “Cheese and yoghurt for example were not included/not asked about, nor the vast list of processed dairy products available in the supermarkets of today.”  What effect if any might there be because of the exclusion of cheese, yoghurt and other processed dairy products?


4.  According to Aurbrey, there exists [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22810464 a second study], published in the European Journal of Nutrition, which
<blockquote>
<blockquote>
Nevertheless, the UK National Screening Committee does recommend mammography screening for breast cancer but not prostate specific antigen screening for prostate cancer.
 
<br><br>
is a meta-analysis of 16 observational studies. There has been a hypothesis that high-fat dairy foods contribute to obesity and heart disease risk, but the reviewers concluded that the evidence does not support this hypothesis. In fact, the reviewers found that in most of the studies, high-fat dairy was associated with a lower risk of obesity.
Because the scientific rationale to recommend screening or not does not differ noticeably between breast and prostate cancer, political pressure and beliefs might have a role.
<br><br>
<br><br>
"We continue to see more and more data coming out [finding that] consumption of whole-milk dairy products is associated with reduced body fat," says the executive vice president of the National Dairy Council.
We agree with Miller and colleagues that “the rationale for screening by mammography be urgently reassessed by policy makers.” As time goes by we do indeed need more efficient mechanisms to reconsider priorities and recommendations for mammography screening and other medical interventions. This is not an easy task, because governments, research funders, scientists, and medical practitioners may have vested interests in continuing activities that are well established.
</blockquote>
</blockquote>


Comment on the vested interests and why the task is difficult.  
Aubrey suggests “the satiety factor. The higher levels of fat in whole milk products may make us feel fuller, faster. And as a result, the thinking goes, we may end up eating less.”  She further adds
<blockquote>


4.  Although the study by Miller is in some sense a bombshell, note that evidence has existed for over 10 years previous that mammography screening for women under 60 years of age had [http://www.cochrane.org/news/blog/mammography-screening-ten-years-reflections-decade-2001-review severe problems].
As we [http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2013/03/19/174739752/whole-milk-or-skim-study-links-fattier-milk-to-slimmer-kids reported last year], a study of children published in the Archives Of Diseases in Childhood, a sister publication of the British Medical Journal, concluded that low-fat milk was associated with more weight gain over time.
<blockquote>
Our finding of increased mastectomies has consistently been ignored by screening advocates for 10 years, and information from many cancer charities and governmental agencies continues to state the opposite – that screening decreases mastectomies - despite having no reliable data to support this claim.
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
As another instance of a (personal) vested interest, and to show how difficult it is to discuss the problems of mammography screening as seen by evidence based medicine, diplomatically engage a female and bring up the topic.
 
5.  Consider “the satiety factor”--full fat keeps us lean--mentioned above.  What sort of analogy might there be to gun ownership and safety?  Excellent brakes and auto accidents?  A GPS system and getting lost?
 


Submitted by Paul Alper
Submitted by Paul Alper

Revision as of 14:01, 27 February 2014

The whole and its parts

According to NPR’s Allison Aubrey,

The reason we're told to limit dairy fat seems pretty straightforward. The extra calories packed into the fat are bad for our waistlines — that's the assumption.

But what if dairy fat isn't the dietary demon we've been led to believe it is? New research suggests we may want to look anew.

In one study published by Swedish researchers in the Scandinavian Journal of Primary Health Care, middle-aged men who consumed high-fat milk, butter and cream were significantly less likely to become obese over a period of 12 years compared with men who never or rarely ate high-fat dairy.

Yep, that's right. The butter and whole-milk eaters did better at keeping the pounds off.

The study itself “followed a cohort of rural men over 12 years” because “In a previous study we found that daily intake of fruit and vegetables in combination with a high dairy fat intake was associated with a lower risk of coronary heart disease”:

1782 men (farmers and non-farmers) aged 40–60 years at baseline participated in a baseline survey (participation rate 76%) and 1589 men participated at the follow-up. 116 men with central obesity at baseline were excluded from the analyses.

Central obesity was defined as waist hip ratio ≥ 1. Waist and hip measurements were taken at both surveys with a tape measure at the level of the umbilicus and at the widest part of the hips with the participants dressed in light wear.


The conclusion drawn is

We found that a low intake of dairy fat was associated with a higher risk of developing central obesity and that a high intake of dairy fat was associated with a lower risk of central obesity among men without central obesity at baseline. The majority of the participants were overweight or obese as defined by BMI at baseline. However, the associations between dairy fat intake and central obesity were consistent across BMI categories at baseline.

The table below indicates that regardless of which model is used, on average, high fat participants have a < 1 waist hip ratio while on average, low fat participants have > 1 waist hip ratio. Table III. Risk of central obesity (waist hip ratio ≥ 1) at follow-up according to dairy fat intake at baseline. Only men with waist hip ratio < 1 at baseline were included. Dairy fat intake Crude (n = 1,303) Model 11 (n = 1,285) Model 22 (n = 1,261) OR3 95% CI OR3 95% CI OR3 95% CI Low (no butter and low fat milk and seldom/never whipping cream) 1.40 0.97–2.03 1.45 0.99–2.11 1.53 1.05–2.24 Medium (all other combinations of spread, milk, and whipping cream) 1 1 1 High (butter and high fat milk and whipping cream daily or several times a week) 0.53 0.34–0.83 0.50 0.31–0.80 0.52 0.33–0.83 1Adjusted for fruit and vegetables daily, smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity. 2Adjusted as above plus age, education, and profession. 3Odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals.

Discussion

1. This Swedish study is clearly not a randomized clinical trial and depends in some manner on self reporting. Why is this a problem? Why is any inference to a larger population also a problem?

2. This Swedish study has males only included. How does this limit any inference?

3. “Cheese and yoghurt for example were not included/not asked about, nor the vast list of processed dairy products available in the supermarkets of today.” What effect if any might there be because of the exclusion of cheese, yoghurt and other processed dairy products?

4. According to Aurbrey, there exists a second study, published in the European Journal of Nutrition, which

is a meta-analysis of 16 observational studies. There has been a hypothesis that high-fat dairy foods contribute to obesity and heart disease risk, but the reviewers concluded that the evidence does not support this hypothesis. In fact, the reviewers found that in most of the studies, high-fat dairy was associated with a lower risk of obesity.

"We continue to see more and more data coming out [finding that] consumption of whole-milk dairy products is associated with reduced body fat," says the executive vice president of the National Dairy Council.

Aubrey suggests “the satiety factor. The higher levels of fat in whole milk products may make us feel fuller, faster. And as a result, the thinking goes, we may end up eating less.” She further adds

As we reported last year, a study of children published in the Archives Of Diseases in Childhood, a sister publication of the British Medical Journal, concluded that low-fat milk was associated with more weight gain over time.

5. Consider “the satiety factor”--full fat keeps us lean--mentioned above. What sort of analogy might there be to gun ownership and safety? Excellent brakes and auto accidents? A GPS system and getting lost?


Submitted by Paul Alper