Chance News 114

July 1, 2018 to ...

Forsooth

“That means then that criminal aliens are committing 28 percent of the crimes in the United States. And so that means 28 percent of the murders, 28 percent of the rapes, 28 percent of the violence and the assaults and battery, first- and second-degree murder and also manslaughter attacks are committed by criminal aliens.”

-- Representative Steve King (R-Iowa), quoted in: Fact-checking President Trump’s numbers on the ‘human toll of illegal immigration’, Washington Post, 6 July 2018

How likely is "likely"?

If you say something is “likely,” how likely do people think it is?
by Andrew Mauboussin and Michael J. Mauboussin, Harvard Business Review, 3 July 2018

Counting LA's homeless

More sidewalk tents, but fewer people living in them? The 2018 homeless count's new math
by Dakota Smith and Doug Smith, Los Angeles Times, 15 July 2018

Plastic straws

How a 9-year-old boy’s statistic shaped a debate on straws
by Niraj Chokshi, New York Times, 19 July 19 2018

Alzheimer's drug study

Why the latest Alzheimer’s drug study has so many people confused
by Clifton Leaf, Fortune, 30 July 2018

Examines conflicting reports in the popular press concerning a recent Alzheimer's drug study. For example, consider the following headlines: • Is this drug the most promising development on Alzheimer's in recent history?, USA Today, 26 July 2018. • Biogen plummets as Alzheimer drug shows little efficacy in trial, TheStreet, 26 July 2018

Workplace wellness programs

Workplace wellness programs don’t work well. Why some studies show otherwise
by Aaron E. Carroll, New York Times, "TheUpshot" blog, 6 August 2018

Compares results of observational studies with subsequent randomized trials. In a number of cases, the effects found in the earlier studies are seen to disappear. Article includes the following graphic: