Sandbox: Difference between revisions

From ChanceWiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search
Line 1: Line 1:
==Dennis Lindley==
==Dennis Lindley==
[http://www.statslife.org.uk/news/1104-renowned-statistician-dennis-lindley-dies Leading British statistician, Dennis Lindley, dies]<br>
StatsLife.org, 16 December 2013


Dennis Lindley was a leading proponent of Bayesian methods in statistics. 
Fisher's original 40 maps are [http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/08/12/40-maps-that-explain-the-world/?lines here}.
The memorial tribute in StatsLife includes this link to 32 minute video of an [http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=cgclGi8yEu4 interview with Lindley].
 
Section 6.8 of Lindley's book [http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470043830.html Understanding Uncertainty] (Wiley, 2005),  a devoted to an discussion of
Cromwell's Rule, which was featured in our Quotations [http://test.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_97#Quotations above].  From Lindley's description:
<blockquote>
Bayes rule in its original, probability, form says that
 
::''p''(''F'' | ''E'') = ''p''(''E'' | ''F'') ''p''(''F'') / ''p''(''E'')
 
providing p(''E'') is not zero. ...Suppose that your probability for ''F'' were zero, then since multiplication of zero by any number always gives the same reulst, zero, the right-hand, and hence also the left-hand, sides will always
be zero whatever be the evidence ''E''.  In other words, if you have probability zero for something, ''F'', you will always have probability  zero for it, whatever evidence ''E'' you receive.  Since, if an event has portability zero,
the complementary event always has probability one, then, whatever evidence you receive, you will continue to believe in it.  No evidence can possibly shake your strongly held belief.
<br>
<br>
… As an example of such a result, consider the case of a person who holds a view ''F'' with probability 1.  Then coherence says that it is no use having a debate with them because
nothing will change their mind [pp. 90-91].</blockquote>


Submitted by Paul Alper
Submitted by Paul Alper

Revision as of 21:03, 24 January 2014

Dennis Lindley

Fisher's original 40 maps are [http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/08/12/40-maps-that-explain-the-world/?lines here}.

Submitted by Paul Alper

Retrieved from "https://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php?title=Sandbox&oldid=18486"