Sandbox: Difference between revisions

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==Medical misinformation==
===Comments===
[http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/11/lies-damned-lies-and-medical-science/8269/ Lies, damned lies, and medical science]<br>
A reasonable explanation for the probability confusion alluded to in <br>
by David H. Freedman, ''The Atlantic'', November 2010
a.) Linda is a bank teller.<br>
b.) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.<br>


This is a long essay on the work of Dr. John Ioannidis.  A paper by Ionnidis, entitled
is that the language of logic and the language of English are not identical.  For example, "Or" in logic means either X or Y or both,
[http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124 Why most published research findings are false] was published in August 2005 in the Public Library of Science (PLoS) Medicine journal.  John Gavin gave an excellent summary of this article in [http://www.causeweb.org/wiki/chance/index.php/Chance_News_%28September-October_2005%29#Just_how_reliable_are_scientific_papers.3F Chance News 28]. 
whereas "or" in English usually means the exclusive "Or" in logic,
 
either X or Y but not both.
One might imagine that raising serious reservations about the research enterprise might have made Ionnidis unpopular.  However, the Atlantic article reports that, far from being ostracized by his colleagues, Ioannidis has become a much-sought-after speaker, and is a frequent co-author on research papers.  His original PLoS article has become the most downloaded in the history of that journal.
   
   
The article concludes with this quote from Ioannidis, which might serve as the moral of the story:
When it comes to "and," the reader, when not misreading the "and" for "or," tends to substitute "who," so instead of
<blockquote>
X and Y,
Science is a noble endeavor, but it’s also a low-yield endeavor. I’m not sure that more than a very small percentage of medical research is ever likely to lead to major improvements in clinical outcomes and quality of life. We should be very comfortable with that fact.
the reader is really considering
</blockquote>
X|Y
which also leads to the belief that (b) is more likely than (a).


Submitted by Bill Peterson
Submitted by Paul Alper

Revision as of 01:38, 4 November 2010

Comments

A reasonable explanation for the probability confusion alluded to in
a.) Linda is a bank teller.
b.) Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.

is that the language of logic and the language of English are not identical. For example, "Or" in logic means either X or Y or both, whereas "or" in English usually means the exclusive "Or" in logic, either X or Y but not both.

When it comes to "and," the reader, when not misreading the "and" for "or," tends to substitute "who," so instead of X and Y, the reader is really considering X|Y which also leads to the belief that (b) is more likely than (a).

Submitted by Paul Alper

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