Chance News 61: Difference between revisions
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Submitted by Paul Alper | Submitted by Paul Alper | ||
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[http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/11/new-poll-shows-support-for-repeal-of-dont-ask-dont-tell/?hp “New Poll Shows Support for Repeal of ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’”]<br> | [http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/11/new-poll-shows-support-for-repeal-of-dont-ask-dont-tell/?hp “New Poll Shows Support for Repeal of ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’”]<br> | ||
by Dalia Sussman, <i>The New York Times</i>, February 11, 2010<br> | by Dalia Sussman, <i>The New York Times</i>, February 11, 2010<br> | ||
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by Kevin Hechtkopf, CBS News, February 11, 2010<br> | by Kevin Hechtkopf, CBS News, February 11, 2010<br> | ||
These articles describe how the wording of a | These articles describe how the wording of a February 5-10, 2010, NYT/CBS News poll affected the results.<br> | ||
When half of the respondents were asked their opinions about permitting “gay men and lesbians” to serve in the military, 70% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it. Of the other half of respondents who were asked about permitting “homosexuals” to serve, only 59% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it. The gap was much wider (79% to 43%) for respondents identifying themselves as Democrats.<br> | When half of the 1,084 respondents were asked their opinions about permitting “gay men and lesbians” to serve in the military, 70% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it. Of the other half of respondents who were asked about permitting “homosexuals” to serve, only 59% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it. The gap was much wider (79% to 43%) for respondents identifying themselves as Democrats.<br> | ||
For more detailed poll results, see the CBS News website [http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_021110_2pm.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody].<br> | For more detailed poll results, see the CBS News website [http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_021110_2pm.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody].<br> | ||
<b>Discussion</b><br> | <b>Discussion</b><br> | ||
1. The margin of error for each half sample was said to be +/- 4 percentage points. | 1. The margin of error for each half sample was said to be +/- 4 percentage points. Would you consider the difference between 70% and 59% statistically significant? If not, why? If so, at what level? What about the difference for Democrats?<br> | ||
2. Can you suggest any reason for the difference between 70% and 59% for the half samples? For the difference between 79% and 43% for the Democratic half samples?<br> | 2. Can you suggest any reason for the difference between 70% and 59% for the half samples? For the difference between 79% and 43% for the Democratic half samples?<br> | ||
3. What implication(s) do these results have, if any, for ballot-question writers?<br> | 3. What implication(s) do these results have, if any, for ballot-question writers?<br> | ||
Submitted by Margaret Cibes based on a suggestion of Jim Greenwood and an ISOSTAT posting by Jeff Witmer | Submitted by Margaret Cibes based on a suggestion of Jim Greenwood and an ISOSTAT posting by Jeff Witmer | ||
Revision as of 17:31, 13 February 2010
Quotations
Forsooth
Census errors
Can you trust Census data?
Freakonomics blog, New York Times, 2 February 2010
Justin Wolfers
Bureau obscured personal data—Too well, some say
Numbers Guy blog, Wall Street Journal, 6 February 2010
Carl Bialik
To be continued...
Submitted by Bill Peterson
Height bias or data dredging?
Soccer referees hate the tall guys
Wall Street Journal, 8 Feburary 2010
According to the article, "Niels van Quaquebeke and Steffen R. Giessner, researchers at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, compiled refereeing data from seven seasons of the German Bundesliga and the UEFA Champions League, as well as three World Cups (123,844 fouls in total)" and found:
| Height Difference | Probability of Foul Against Taller Player |
| 1-5 cm | 52.0% |
| 6-10 cm | 55.4% |
| > 10 cm | 58.8% |
| Avg. Height of Perpetrator | Avg. Height of Victim |
| 182.4 cm | 181.5 cm |
Note that the height difference on average is only 0.9 cm!
To be continued... Submitted by Paul Alper
Poll question wording affects results
“New Poll Shows Support for Repeal of ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’”
by Dalia Sussman, The New York Times, February 11, 2010
"Support for Gays in the Military Depends on the Question"
by Kevin Hechtkopf, CBS News, February 11, 2010
These articles describe how the wording of a February 5-10, 2010, NYT/CBS News poll affected the results.
When half of the 1,084 respondents were asked their opinions about permitting “gay men and lesbians” to serve in the military, 70% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it. Of the other half of respondents who were asked about permitting “homosexuals” to serve, only 59% said that they strongly/somewhat favored it. The gap was much wider (79% to 43%) for respondents identifying themselves as Democrats.
For more detailed poll results, see the CBS News website [1].
Discussion
1. The margin of error for each half sample was said to be +/- 4 percentage points. Would you consider the difference between 70% and 59% statistically significant? If not, why? If so, at what level? What about the difference for Democrats?
2. Can you suggest any reason for the difference between 70% and 59% for the half samples? For the difference between 79% and 43% for the Democratic half samples?
3. What implication(s) do these results have, if any, for ballot-question writers?
Submitted by Margaret Cibes based on a suggestion of Jim Greenwood and an ISOSTAT posting by Jeff Witmer