Chance News 26

Quotations

You see what you look for and look for what you know.

Dr. Dwight Harken
Aainst All Odds

It is now proved beyond doubt that smoking is one of the

leading causes of statistics.

Fletcher Krebel
Reader's Digest (December 1961)

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One of the naturalists had argued that On the Origin of Species was too theoretical, that Darwin should have just "put his facts before us and let them rest." In response, Darwin reflected that science, to be of any service, required more than list making; it needed larger ideas that could make sense of piles of data. Otherwise, Darwin said, a geologist "might as well go into a gravel-pit and count the pebbles and describe the colours." Data without generalizations are useless; facts without explanatory principles are meaningless.

Michael Shermer
Why Darwin Matters. The Case Against Intelligent Design. (page 1)

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Forsooths

The following Forsooths were in the April 2007 RSS News:

Britain has been basking in the early onset of spring with temperatures almost twice as warm as the same time last year.

Lucy Ballinger
Daily Mirror
12 March 2007

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PHEW! Twice as warm as Corfu

It's not often we put Corfu in the shade weatherwise, especially at tis time of the year. But while the Greek holiday spot could only manage a paltry B8C (46F) yesterday, Britons basked in the sun as temperatures reached 16C (60F) yesterday.

Stephen White
Daily Mirror
12 March 2007

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He (Persi Diaconis) proved that it takes seven shuffles to perfectly randomize a pack of cards.

Justin Mullins
New Scientist
March 24-30, 2007, p 52

Contributed by Laurie Snell.

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We were eleven people obtaining those 30.000 millions. I want the 11% that corresponds to me.

A politician of Madrid in a phone dialogue recorded by the police.
El Pais
20th October, 2006,

Contributed by Carlos Silva.

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Statistics in the history of smoking

The Cigarette Century: The rise, fall, and deadly persistence of the product that defined America
Allan M. Brandt, 600 pp.
Basic Books, 2007, Amazon $23.76.

Those who have used the Against all Odds videos in their statistics classes will be glad to know that they are now freely available here. This is a series of 26 half hour videos that discuss statistical concepts in the context of real world problems. Our own favorite is video 11 "The question of causation". This includes the story of establishing that smoking causes lung cancer.

to be continued

The Numbers Guy

Annette Georgey recently wrote to the the Isolated Statisticians:

A friend just alerted me to a blog maintained by "The Numbers Guy," a columnist for the Wall Street Journal who writes about probability and statistics in the news. Although the WSJ online is available to subscribers only, the blog is available to all. It contains many great examples for the classroom, written in everyday English, such as the odds of a three-way tie in the TV game show "Jeopardy," understanding statistical significance in recent hormone studies, the Texas lottery, and more.

And don't forget statistician Andrew Gelman's wonderful Blog Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Submitted by Laurie Snell

Lies, Damned Lies, and Drug War Statistics: A Critical Analysis of Claims Made by the Office of National Drug Control Policy

Matthew B. Robinson, Renee G. Scherlen, Renee G. Scherl

2207, State University of New York Press

Book Description

Uncovers how the Office of National Drug Control Policy uses and misuses statistical evidence.

From the Back Cover

This book critically analyzes claims made by the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP), the White House agency of accountability in the nation's drug war. Specifically, the book examines six editions of the annual National Drug Control Strategy between 2000 and 2005 to determine if ONDCP accurately and honestly presents information or intentionally distorts evidence to justify continuing the war on drugs.

Matthew B. Robinson and Renee G. Scherlen uncover the many ways in which ONDCP manipulates statistics and visually presents that information to the public. Their analysis demonstrates a drug war that consistently fails to reduce drug use, drug fatalities or illnesses associated with drug use; fails to provide treatment for drug dependent users; and drives up the prices of drugs. They conclude with policy recommendations for reforming ONDCP's use of statistics, as well as how the nation fights the war on drugs.

"The authors have performed a valuable service to our democracy with their meticulous analysis of the White House ONDCP public statements and reports. They have pulled the sheet off what appears to be an official policy of deception using clever and sometimes clumsy attempts at statistical manipulation. This document, at last, gives us a map of the truth." -- Mike Gray, author of *Drug Crazy: How We Got into This Mess and How We Can Get Out

"Robinson and Scherlen make a valuable contribution to documenting how

ONDCP fails to live up to basic standards of accountability and consistency." -- Ethan Nadelmann, Executive Director, Drug Policy Alliance

At Appalachian State University, Matthew B. Robinson is Associate Professor of Criminal Justice, and Renee G. Scherlen is Associate Professor of Political Science. Robinson is the author of several books, including Justice Blind? Ideals and Realities of American Criminal Justice, Second Edition.

Submitted by John Finn