Chance News 113: Difference between revisions
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We at least have models for something like two people coming to work wearing the same shoes or both getting a haircut the day before, but this is the equivalent of lightning striking in the same place hundreds of times in a row. We’re going to have to go back to the drawing board on probability analysis entirely. | We at least have models for something like two people coming to work wearing the same shoes or both getting a haircut the day before, but this is the equivalent of lightning striking in the same place hundreds of times in a row. We’re going to have to go back to the drawing board on probability analysis entirely. | ||
</blockquote> | </blockquote> | ||
==Football decision theory== | |||
[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/opinion/sunday/football-two-point-conversion.html Force overtime? Or go for the win?]<br> | |||
by Jesse Walker, Jane L. Risen, Thomas Gilovich and Richard Thaler , New York Times, 27 February 2018 | |||
==Interpreting exit polls== | ==Interpreting exit polls== | ||
Revision as of 14:28, 26 July 2018
Quotations
“The court will not rely on extrapolated numbers from tiny samples sizes and otherwise flawed data.”
Forsooth
Statistic of last year
Matching shirts!
Leading probability researchers confounded by three coworkers wearing same shirt color on same day
The Onion, 18 January 2018
A lovely spoof on coincidence stories. We read the following breathless quote from "researchers":
We at least have models for something like two people coming to work wearing the same shoes or both getting a haircut the day before, but this is the equivalent of lightning striking in the same place hundreds of times in a row. We’re going to have to go back to the drawing board on probability analysis entirely.
Football decision theory
Force overtime? Or go for the win?
by Jesse Walker, Jane L. Risen, Thomas Gilovich and Richard Thaler , New York Times, 27 February 2018
Interpreting exit polls
The 2016 exit polls led us to misinterpret the 2016 election
by Thomas Edsall, New York Times, 29 March 2018
Hurricane Maria death tolls
Why are the death tolls in Puerto Rico from Hurricane Maria so different?
by Sheri Fink, New York Times, 2 June 2018
Mediterranean diet controversy
That huge Mediterranean diet study was flawed. But was it wrong?
by Gina Kolata, New York Times, 13 June 2018